Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
Is there a total low enough between these two teams to make me afraid to take the Under? Yes, but this isn't it. This is going to be a slow, physical, drawn out affair. Both offenses are going to need nearly all 30 seconds of the shot clock to find an open look on most possessions, which is fine with them because that's typically how they work anyway. But with these two defenses, these slow-moving offenses, and with this game being played inside a giant football stadium that provides odd sight lines, I'm not sure one team reaches 60 points, let alone both.
These are two of the most efficient defenses in the country, which means it's likely going to be a low-scoring, close battle throughout, as this spread suggests. Still, while both teams are terrific defensively, what's often overlooked is that Virginia has one of the most efficient offenses in the country as well. I trust the Cavs to be able to score in this game more than I do the Raiders, so I'll lay the points with Virginia.
It's very low. Too low for me. Texas Tech did exactly what they wanted with Michigan State, which is they doubled up on Cassius Winston and pretty much stopped him, and took away the inside. Between Culver and Moretti and Mooney, Tech will be able to score some on Virginia. It won't take many points from the Cavaliers to hit the Over here.
I like Texas Tech. Culver made the difference Saturday at the end of the game. Virginia is really lucky, they shouldn't be here. The refs blew the (double-dribble) call at the end of the game that would have won Auburn the game. Now Bruce Pearl knows how Sean Payton feels. But Texas Tech has players who can score, and I don't think Virginia does against its defense. I've ridden Texas Tech this far, I'm not getting off now.
It helps to be both lucky and good in the NCAA Tournament and I think the Cavaliers have used up all their luck potion, dodging bullets in their last three games. They've gone 3-5 ATS in their last eight after exceeding their high rating most of the season (25-12 ATS). But Texas Tech's defense is No. 1 in the nation allowing opponents to shoot just 36.8 percent from the field. The Red Raiders are getting stronger with each game -- covering all five tournament games -- and have gone 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games. Guns up, I'm on Texas Tech and I'm also going Over just because this total has dropped too low.
The NCAA Championship game will be somewhat deprived of points. We know that from watching the semifinals. But the public has hammered an already low total down to a figure that hardly befits teams capable of going off offensively. Texas Tech reached the 80s in five of its last six regular season outings, while Virginia’s average of 71 points puts the Cavaliers in the middle of the 15-team ACC in scoring. Players might have needed Saturday’s games to grow accustomed to shooting in the massive football stadium and should be more on target. And, if nothing else, the negligible point spread suggests we could be treated to bonus minutes in yet another tournament overtime that would allow for more scoring.