Michigan State coach Tom Izzo finally got past persistent nemesis Duke, and now his Spartans have their best chance to win another title since his first one back in 2000. This is Izzo's eight Final Four compared to zero combined for the other three coaches. Experience in this realm has to matter and, in a matchup of somewhat even teams, should make a difference. Moreover, the Spartans have the better club despite Texas Tech's ultra-impressive March run.

Flip the head coaches, and Texas Tech would be favored. As awesome as Tom Izzo is, Chris Beard earned his National Coach of the Year Award with a peerless defense and an effective offense built around Jarrett Culver, the Final Four’s most effective player not named Cassius Winston. The Red Raiders took out the tournament's most talented team (Gonzaga), so they certainly can hang with the rugged Spartans.

If I were picking a side in this game I'd lean toward Texas Tech and the points, but I'm not nearly as comfortable with that pick as I am with the Under here. These are two solid defensive teams that move at a muted pace on offense. The Under has gone 3-1 in each of these team's four tournament games so far, and playing in a giant football stadium can cause teams to need time to adjust to strange sight lines.

Both teams are top 10 defensively with Michigan State ranking No. 9 and oh yeah Texas Tech No. 1. On offense Michigan State is No. 5 however Texas Tech ranks No. 28. The pace will be slow as both teams work the ball on offense looking for a good shot which will be hard to find against these two defenses. Texas Tech's pace of play is No. 267 at 18.3 seconds a possession on average. The only two defenses they face this year close to Michigan State's was Michigan (63 points), Kansas State (45 and 63 points) and Duke (58 points). The average for those four games was 57 but the median is 60.5. If Michigan State wins by 2 1/2 that means the final score will be 63-60.5 for a total of 123 1/2.

Cassius Winston! Winston is the best player on the floor and proved that by beating Duke. Oh yeah they beat Michigan three times this year. Winston makes everyone around him better. He has all of the skills needed to play in the NBA and the one biggest skill no one can teach and that is instincts. He knows when to score and when to set up the right teammate for an easy score. Michigan State offense ranks fifth and the defense ranks ninth. Texas Tech's offense is No. 28 but the defense is No. 1. So we found the difference in the two teams and that is offense. If Tre Jones couldn't slow down Winston I don't see Texas Tech doing it. Michigan State by 6.

I really like Texas Tech. Tech will smother Michigan State on defense, and they’ve got Jarrett Culver, he’s just so good. The Raiders are very well-coached. It’s going to be a low-scoring game, it’s going to be a battle, but I think Texas Tech is the team.