This is a pretty simple equation for me. Neither one of these teams moves at a quick pace, which will limit possessions, and Purdue is a very good team offensively. I just don't see much of a chance for Virginia to pull away in this game unless it gets ridiculously hot from three (always possible!), so in a game I expect to be close throughout, 4.5 points are attractive.

Virginia’s not scoring all that well, they’re not shooting well, and I think they could have trouble. Purdue is really hot right now, they’re scoring, and I think they have a good chance of winning. I’ll take the points with the hot Boilermakers and Carsen Edwards.

Something is amiss with Virginia on offense. Not counting the NCAA opener against patsy Gardner-Webb, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 57 points while shooting 26 percent on threes. Purdue wields a scoring machine (Carsen Edwards) and a sharp-shooting right-hand man (Ryan Cline) who can keep the underdogs close, if not on top.

Purdue is playing its best ball of the season right now and has won and covered its last three since losing to Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament. The Boilermakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. Carsen Edwards is always going to be great. But seeing Ryan Cline step up and make the biggest shots of his career on Thursday has me believing Edwards has the proper supporting cast to propel Purdue into the Final Four. Purdue to cover.