Michigan State has covered 24 of their last 33 games and have arguably the best defense in the nation. Great defenses always travel well and they've won seven straight (5-2 ATS). LSU has failed to cover its last three games, but I love the way the scrap and I love their leader Tremont Waters. I took the points with LSU.

The grind-it-out games in the NCAA Tournament have become a theme. While this one won’t approach Virginia-Oregon or Texas Tech-Michigan, a total of nearly 150 seems ambitious offensively. Michigan State will throw its bulk around to limit LSU’s athletes on offense. Against high-caliber opposition, the Spartans usually stay Under. That’s where LSU has landed in five of the seven latest outings.

I love Tom Izzo, Cassius Winston is a great player, and I think Kenny Goins is a great ballhandlers. The Spartans, they can really defend. LSU, they’re a bad second half team, and they're going to miss their coach in this one. Spartans move on and cover.

Michigan State has been one of the best teams in the country all season long, and it's currently ranked No. 3 by KenPom, ahead of even Duke. Still, as good as it's been, it's overly dependent on Cassius Winston offensively at time, particularly as a ball-handler. LSU has been good at forcing turnovers on defense this season, and I think it will have some success pressuring Winston and forcing him to give up the ball, and forcing MSU into turning the ball over more than it wants to. That will help keep the Tigers in this game, and within this number.