Buffalo has won 13 straight and appears to be the ideal underdog story of the NCAA Tournament. But Texas Tech is playing its best and arguably has the best defense in the nation, allowing opponents to shoot 36.9 percent from the field. Everything has come together for the Red Raiders in the last month, going 9-2 ATS in their last 11. Guns Up! Texas Tech is the play.

This boils down to which team controls the pace. The guess here is Texas Tech, which reached the Elite Eight a year ago and starts three seniors off that squad. Buffalo is unaccustomed to a maudlin clip and will feel out of sorts. Amazing stat: Red Raiders opponents shoot under 30 percent on threes. Lay the points.

Texas Tech isn't always the most exciting team to watch on offense, even if they are ranked 37th nationally by KenPom in efficiency. Where the Red Raiders excel is on defense, where it's ranked 2nd nationally, and where it should have a major advantage on the Bulls. Buffalo takes a lot of threes, but doesn't shoot them that well overall. They tend to overwhelm opponents with volume, but Tech's defense makes it hard to find open shots. And while Tech can get foul happy, Buffalo shoots only 69% from the FT line. With a spread like this, that could loom large.

This is going to be a great basketball game. If Jeremy Harris can continue to shoot well, Buffalo has a real chance at winning this game outright. My simulations make Texas Tech -2 so I'm taking the points with Buffalo.

The Bulls are the most experienced team in the tournament. Their offense ranks 19th and their defense 28th. Jeremy Harris had an off year, shooting 29 percent from deep, but is 7 for 15 in his last two games. He was a solid 40 percent last season. Texas Tech brings the No. 2 defense but the 38th-best offense. The Red Raiders were a cover machine in February and March but just 6-8 ATS in non conference games. Buffalo wins this one straight up!

Texas Tech is my darkhorse team to go far. They can score, they play defense, they’re probably as good a defensive team as anyone in the tournament. And they'll stop that Buffalo scoring. Buffalo can put up points, but I think Tech stops them and covers.