I finally got the line movement I was looking for here as the public backs Cincinnati in what should feel like a home game. I make Cincinnarti -1 in my simulations, so I'm taking the free points at +4.5 with Iowa.

This game is being played only 90 minutes down the road from Cincinnati, giving the Bearcats an unexpected advantage not often afforded a 7-seed. It's an advantage I believe is having too large an effect on this spread, as it's not like Iowa isn't used to playing in Columbus, and doing so in front of a far more hostile crowd than the one they'll face Friday morning. Cincinnati's better defensively, but Iowa's size, pace, and ability to hit shots will keep it within this number at a minimum.

Cincinnati's been complaining about being a 7 seed instead of a 5. They've got a chip on their shoulder. Iowa's got some shooters, but Cincy's too tough, and they have a playmaker in Jarron Cumberland.