Old Dominion is my upset special. Purdue is real soft, Old Dominion is getting a lot of points, and they’re alive. ODU is going to be able to out-rebound the Boilermakers. That’s going to be a real close game. Take all thsoe points.

Jeff Jones has ODU playing its best basketball at the right time. The Monarchs play extremely slow and excellent defense. They have not allowed a team to score more than 65 since Feb. 2. They did beat the two best teams on their schedule winning at Syracuse by six and against VCU by 13. Purdue tempo is well below average working the ball around the perimeter looking for a good three-point shot. If those 3's don't fall ODU is in the game. With the total just 126, points will be at a premium.

I have Purdue winning the first two round of the tournament, but I'm betting against them (ATS) in the opening round with Old Dominion. This line should be closer to +10 for the ODU team that beat Syracuse this season. Purdue wins, Old Dominion covers.

There was a time in January following Purdue's beatdown at Michigan State that they looked like the Boilermakers turned the corner and won eight straight. The road woes were thought gone, but they found the funk again. They couldn't cover their rating away from West Lafayette and then lost at Minnesota and 10 days later lost to the Gophers again in the Big Ten Tourney. Old Dominion loves the underdog role and beat NCAA Tourney teams like VCU and Syracuse this season. Old Dominion is the play.