This pick boils down to whether momentum plays a part entering the NCAA Tournament. If so, Marquette is toast. The Warriors have stumbled straight-up in five of their last six. But it wasn’t long ago they were 23-4 and highly ranked. Ol’ Mo -- or lack thereof -- can be overemphasized. The public is jacked about Ja Morant, Murray’s brilliant PG, in the field. He does not justify the surprisingly small spread.

I like Murray State against Marquette. Marquette has really kind of slumped the last couple weeks. Murray State is a good, and they've got a guy in Ja Morant who’s probably going to be a high draft pick. He’ll be the best player on the floor. I think the Racers win.

Murray State is a trendy underdog play and Ja Morant is awesome, but this line is inflated towards the public dog. My simulations make Marquette -6 favorites in this matchup. Murray State is going to struggle with the overall size and 3-point shooting from Marquette.

Murray State rides an 11-game win streak and went 27-4 on the season. Two of those losses came against SEC teams Alabama and Auburn, but the Racers covered both games. They went 19-10 ATS this season, were ninth in the nation shooting 49.6 percent from the field, and also ninth in assist to turnover ratio. I was hoping for more points but Marquette lost its last four regular-season games and was bounced as favorites against Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament; 1-5 ATS in its last six. I'm on Murray State.

I'm projecting a double-digit Golden Eagles win; this line is short. Back Marquette, which came within a basket of reaching the Big East final, to improve to 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.