Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
Although the Sun Devils might have the slight edge in overall talent, the Red Storm appear better-equipped to win the play-in game. They are the best team in the Big East and generating steals and Arizona State was among the worst in the Pac-12 with ball security. Moreover, St. John's star Shamorie Ponds is the type of player who can impose his will on the game and make a difference even if his shot isn't falling. Look for the Red Storm to prevail.
The Red Storm haven't been playing their best basketball of late. They finished the regular season having lost three in a row and four of five before beating DePaul in the Big East Tournament. They followed that up with a 32-point loss to Marquette that nearly knocked them out of the tournament altogether. Now they're playing an Arizona State team that finished strong but was benefitting from an easy schedule. I've seen both of these teams a few times this season, and I was more impressed by what I saw from St. John's than I was an Arizona State team that's great at getting to the free throw line, but awful once it gets there. In a close game like this, I'd rather rely on the team more likely to make its free throws.
The Sun Devils have been a little up and down but they did beat Mississippi State, Utah State and Kansas early in the year. They also won six of their last eight games with the two losses coming to Oregon, one on the road and the other in overtime during the conference tournament. ASU's offense ranks 68th and their defense 79th. St. John's beat VCU, Villanova and Marquette twice but the Red Storm played one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country to build a 12-0 record. The Johnnies' offense ranks 69th and their defense ranks 111th. The Sun Devils will hold a big advantage in getting to the free throw line. They love to drive the lane and they play solid position defense. Lay the small number. My projection: Arizona State 80 - Saint John's 74