There's a contrarian nature to this pick. Belmont has been the mid-major darling for a lot of the season, and after it lost to Murray State in the conference tournament, there were plenty of pundits taking up its case as an at-large. But while Belmont is 26-5 on the season it got there by playing one of the weaker schedules in the country. According to KenPom, Temple, which is 23-9 playing a much more difficult schedule, is the third-best team the Bruins have faced this season. I'll take the Owls and the points.

The Owls probably don't deserve to be in the play-in game, as they have been an NCAA Tournament-quality team all year, with a resume felled only by a relatively weak non-conference schedule. Seven of Temple's nine losses came by single figures. The Owls feature a savvy, experienced backcourt, a major asset this time of year. We've heard and seen the hype on Belmont before -- four times this decade. The Bruins annually receive a ton of mid-major sweetheart hype, and never live up to it. In fact, all four prior trips to the NCAA Tournament have ended in double-figures losses.