Florida State is playing defense as good as anyone in the entire country. Duke's defense has been Top 10 all year long. The Seminoles had gone under in seven straight games before just getting over the total of 123 1/2 versus Virginia. Leonard Hamilton's team is also 9-3 under the last 12 times they've been an underdog. Duke is 23-9-1 under in 2018-19 and 12-3 under when playing with two or less days rest. Tre Jones' defense at the point leads the way for the Dukies. Zion Williamson will be playing his third game in three days after missing the last six games. Look for Duke to take their time on offense to keep him fresh plus late in the games with a lead Coach K loves to run clock.

In the opening act Friday to the Duke-North Carolina main event, FSU looked darned good in knocking of Virginia, the top ACC Tournament seed. The Blue Devils could cope with a slight letdown, and Zion Williamson plays his third game in three nights after a long layoff, which could test his stamina. The Seminoles have covered in the last four meetings and have failed to cover but once in their past 11 neutral-site outings.

Has there ever been a Duke player more beloved by people who aren't Duke fans than Zion Williamson? That has nothing to do with my pick, it's just something I've been wondering. Anyway, I like the Under here. Zion's been amazing, but he didn't play for nearly a month, and now he's playing his third game in three days, as are his teammates, and as are the Seminoles. These are also two very good defenses, and while FSU's defensive weakness is guarding the three-point line, Duke is an awful three-point shooting team. That'll help limit the scoring.