Michigan State comes in having covered 14 of its last 16 games, including 12 wins straight and eight straight covers. It's also covered all eight games in Big Ten play. Iowa has won and covered its last five games, but it was against lower Big Ten teams. Their last loss was 86-70 at Purdue Jan. 3. The Spartans' defense will travel well and get another cover.

The trusty projection model sees the red-hot Spartans taking care of business Thursday against the upstart Hawkeyes. My numbers have Michigan State winning by an average of nine points and covering the spread at least 61 percent of the time. Back the road favorite in this crucial Big Ten contest.