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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
This line is inflated a bit because of the books getting ahead of what the public saw last, which was Villanova crushing Kansas start to finish and Michigan struggling before covering against Loyola. I have the game -5, but I've been so impressed by what Villanova has done all season, covering every spread in the tournament and being the No. 2 cover team in the nation. I'm cool with laying some extra popularity tax with them. Villanova rolls again.
Following Saturday's historic Final Four performance, it takes some nerve and a short memory to step in front of Villanova in Monday's title game. There's little doubt Michigan will become another double-digit victim if it has slow start similar to the one it had against Loyola-Chicago. But the Wolverines have a style similar to Seton Hall, a Big East club that gives Villanova fits. They will slow down the tempo and force the Wildcats to work on defense, while contesting on the defensive end and holding Villanova to one shot. Taking the points is the logical position in this one.
I'm projecting just 138 points for Monday's national championship game, giving us a solid play on the Under. The Under is cashing in 68 percent of my computer simulations.
Being a steep underdog is virtually unheard of on a 14-game win-streak. Yet Villanova's dominance has created the perfect storm. The Wildcats have covered every game in the tournament, culminating in the best performance seen in the Final Four in years. Meanwhile Michigan has registered narrow, sloppy victories. All tournament, Michigan's guards have been outplayed. But this is a matchup in which Michigan's guards can outshine Villanova's and John Beilein can match Jay Wright's in-game adjustments. Grab Michigan.
I suggest waiting until you see +7, but at the time of this selection the game was +6.5. The majority of general public money will be on Villanova minus the points to drive the line up. The Wildcats have won 10 games in a row and have covered eight of their last nine, winning those by an average of seven points more than the point spread. Michigan has won 14 consecutive games and have covered 11 of those and one push. On average, the Wolverines cover their games by 7.9 points more than the spread. According to Kenpom.com's defensive ratings, Michigan is No. 3 and 'Nova is No.. 14. That's right. I'm going to take the better defensive team plus the points.
I like Michigan, so we will need the Wolverines to control the pace with their great defense. Michigan's pace on offense is very methodical and should continue to be the game plan. Since Feb. 21, Villanova's defense has improved with the return of Phil Booth. During conference play, the Wildcats allowed 75 points per game, but in the NCAA Tournament they've allowed just 67.1 per contest.
Whew, Villanova has some kind of offense. In four of their five NCAA Tournament outings, the Wildcats have amassed 87, 81, 90 and 95 points. Their output in the other game offers hope -- and evidence -- of an Under in the championship. The Wildcats managed a measly -- for them -- 71 points against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders' laudable defensive profile is similar to Michigan's. The Wolverines are yielding 58 points per game in the tourney. The only foe to exceed 63 was Texas A&M, which was in desperation mode during the entire second half. This is not to suggest Michigan can keep 'Nova in the 60s; low 70s is likely the best to which it can aspire. I like the Wolverines' chances to do so. Their defense is in-your-face and adjustments against Loyola-Chicago tamed the Ramblers on Saturday after the underdogs dizzied Michigan by spreading the floor and relying on their post player. So, let's assume Villanova lands in the low 70s. Michigan would essentially need to match the favorite's point total for the Over to score. And as much as I admire the Wolverines, it's a stretch to envision a straight-up win against the hottest team in the nation. Under it is.