Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
I'm jumping off the Loyola-Chicago party train after riding it most of the season. The Ramblers are the No. 1 cover team in the nation at 24-9 against the spread and they've won their last 14 games, including covers in their last six. But the Wolverines' resume has a little more meat to it. They're rolling too with 13 straight wins, going 10-3 ATS in that span. Michigan quietly cruised to a 24-13 ATS mark this season, seventh-best in the nation. The line is cheap too; should be closer to -7.5. Michigan is the play.
Two full weekends of March Madness have created yet another Cinderella story in Loyola-Chicago. Fortunate finishes resulted in three close victories before an eye-opening pull-away win over Kansas State. The Ramblers would seem to have another perfect matchup against guard-oriented Michigan. Yet, this is when a coach of John Beilein’s caliber shines. It’s also where Cinderella long-shot stories usually come to an end (Syracuse-VCU-George Mason). After the Wolverines struggled to score against athletic teams in Houston and Florida State, I expect Beilein to have extended half-court sets to tear apart Loyola. Grab Michigan.
Points will be at a premium in the first national semifinal Saturday evening. I'm projecting just 121 points for Loyola-Chicago vs. Michigan, giving us a solid play on the Under. The Under is cashing in a whopping 76 percent of my simulations.
As a No. 11, Loyola might be punching above its weight class, but it has not confronted a defense like Michigan’s. The Wolverines, listed in the Pomeroy Ratings as the fourth-most efficient in the land, are limiting tournament foes to 38 percent field-goal accuracy. Zavier Simpson, who usually covers the opponent’s point guard, is a nightmare for whoever he is guarding. This is one stifling unit. In a likely low-scoring game, spotting five points can seem like a lot. Yet a full week of high-fives and back-pats for the Ramblers is detrimental to sustaining their momentum.