West Virginia thrives on its full-court press. Problem is, Villanova is almost immune to such pressure. It ranks among the nation’s leaders in fewest turnovers per possession, and its upperclassmen lineup is experienced enough to not wilt from West Virginia’s defensive heat. The talent gap between the teams is small enough to suggest a play on the underdog. The details of the matchup say otherwise. Villanova should master the press and either score in transition or force West Virginia to play half-court defense.

West Virginia has turned up its game a notch, winning and covering four of its last five. The Over has also cashed in four of the Mountaineers' previous five. Villanova comes in with the highest rating of the tournament and the amazing this is that the number still isn't high enough as it has gone 24-12 ATS, including covers in five of its last six. Four of those games went Over. Villanova gets the cover.

On Friday, West Virginia meets Villanova i a matchup of former rivals in the Big East five years ago. While coach Bob Huggins has adapted his team to fit the Big 12, Jay Wright has kept the core philosophy intact for Villaova. That’s a strength for the Wildcats to attack a West Virginia team that lacks consistency.

West Virginia walked an obstacle-free path to the Sweet 16, notching a pair of ho-hum wins over Murray State and Marshall. But the Mountaineers are likely to meet their match in the Sweet 16 against top-seeded Villanova. Not only the Wildcats the more talented club, they have picked apart opponents who use full-court pressure. For example, they have a pair of wins over Xavier by 50 combined points. Jalen Brunson and friends will pay off the press-breaker with transition buckets, and the Wildcats will move to the Elite Eight with a comfortable win.

The Wildcats lead the nation with 87 points per game, and I don't see the Mountaineers slowing them down. West Virginia doesn't defend 3-pointers particularly well -- a trait that will haunt the Mountaineers on Friday night. In my simulations, Villanova wins by double digits and covers 64 percent of the time.