These teams have seen their rating drop significantly over the past few weeks. Purdue has gone 2-11 against the spread in its last 13 games and will be without big man Isaac Haas for the rest of the season. Texas Tech just ended an 0-7 ATS run with its 69-66 win over Florida last weekend. I'm taking Purdue, the better team, at its lowest rating of the season.

Texas Tech and Purdue faded late in the season. The Boilermakers lost three straight, while the Red Raiders lost five of seven. Yet Texas Tech has the combination of defense and high depth advantage to get by Purdue. The Raiders are one of the few teams that have used their depth to override an opponent's starting five. Not skipping a beat with March Madness substitutions will be the thin advantage for Chris Beard. Grab the Red Raiders.

Even without big man Isaac Haas, my computer projects a semi-comfortable Boilermakers victory. Purdue wins straight-up in nearly 70 percent of the simulations. I'll go the money line route instead of giving up any points, though, just in case.