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This is a bad matchup for the Seminoles, who overwhelmed Missouri with their depth and athleticism in their first-round matchup. Although Xavier might oblige with Florida State's preferred up-tempo style, the Musketeers have a level of physicality, discipline and half-court defense that has given Florida State trouble all season. Look for the Musketeers to pull away in the second half and cover this mid-range number.
Last year, Florida State was the high seed that was exposed by a lower-seeded Xavier squad. Now, look for a reversal as the Seminoles have a new nucleus of players that should be better prepared scouting-wise against the Musketeers.
Florida State is blessed with depth, which will soften the blow of the likely absence of guard Terance Mann (groin). But any other scratch would have been preferable for the Seminoles. Mann's versatile play is reflected in his averages: 12.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists. Xavier wields virtually the same rotation as the one that downed FSU by 25 in last year's NCAA Tournament.
Xavier has gone 21-13 ATS this season, but the Musketeers have gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Their rating has peaked, although this number should probably be closer to -4.5, which means FSU has slight value. Xavier only lost five games this season, but I've seen them look bad in two small wins against DePaul. ASU ran them out of the gym and Providence beat them twice. FSU's win against Missouri stopped an ugly 0-8 ATS run. But I'm still taking the points with FSU in what could be another No. 1 bowing out.