Clemson showed off a new skill set against New Mexico State with an outpouring of offense. That was against a smaller, less athletic team. Can the Tigers do the same against Auburn? This is a spot where both teams faded down the stretch in the regular season, but for Clemson, it was injury-driven. It's the better coached team and likely would have been a No. 3 seed if not for five losses in their final eight games.

Auburn has not been the same since the devastating loss of forward Anfernee McLemore (ankle) in mid-February. Without him patrolling the paint, the Tigers are 3-4 straight-up and 1-6 ATS. More limited on offense, Auburn enters and unenviable scenario against Clemson, the sixth-best team nationwide in defensive efficiency, according to the Pomeroy Ratings. Auburn has shot south of 40 percent in six of its last outings, and another chilly night in the 30s awaits.

Going by recent trends this is a no-brainer. Auburn has failed to cover in its last five games, while Clemson has covered in four of its last five, including over first-round opponent New Mexico State. The Aggies were a 3.5-underdog and lost by 11. Auburn, which was laying 9.5 against College of Charleston, looked tight for most of the game and was lucky to escape with a win. Still, my simulations show Clemson covering the spread a majority of the time. Take Clemson.