Duke played Virginia Tech in Durham two weeks ago and came away with a 74-52 win, covering -11 and staying Under 163. Duke has won and covered its last five games and its last four have stayed Under the total. But the recent Unders are more a product of the slow teams Duke was playing. Virginia Tech wants to run too, but the Hokies have stayed Under in their last six games. Duke is 10-4 to the Over on the road this season. Both teams' total ratings have dropped to their lowest of the season. The value is now on the Over.

Duke has been dominant ATS this season, posting an 18-9 record overall, a 9-5 mark on the road, and perhaps most impressively, it is 17-8 when favored. The Blue Devils take care of business on a regular basis and they already have a 22-point win over the Hokies on their resume. My simulations point to more of the same on Monday night.