This is a big game for both teams as the A-10 Tournament awards a double bye to the top four teams. St. Louis sits in fourth place, leading by one game over four teams. Dayton is tied for ninth (the top 10 teams receive a first-round bye). The Billiens won the first meeting, 75-65, and they're 7-2 SU and ATS over their last nine. Dayton is 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS over that same span. Grab the points.

The Flyers are a one-possession favorite here, but my projections have them winning by double-digits. They cover in 72 percent of simulations, making this a high-value pick. Go with Dayton to cover.