Mississippi State needs Aric Holman. The visitors might not deploy their 6-foot-10 power forward (knee), whose 6.6 rebounds per game would be missed more than his 11.1 points. Texas A&M is tree-tall, with three 6-10 players, at least two of whom are on the court most of the game. At home, the Aggies are 12-2 straight-up this season and with covers in the past four appearances. MSU is in trouble on the boards even if Holman plays -- and could be dominated if he does not.

MSU has covered in each of its last seven games, but only three times on the road all season. The Bulldogs are not road warriors: they're 17-1 at home but only 2-7 outside of Starkville. A&M has lost two in a row to bring the spread down a tad, but not enough for my projections, which are calling for a nine-point win. Take the home Aggies.