The Cyclones are young but very talented. They have struggled versus good competition on the road and even struggled early at home. However the Cyclones won and covered their last four home conference games. Kansas is 19-6 SU and 12-11-1 ATS as well as just 4-7 ATS in conference games. My point is that Kansas is very vulnerable this year and the pressure is just starting to heat up as the Jayhawks have won the Big 12 an amazing 13 straight years. So no one wants to be the team that breaks that streak. Iowa is Iowa State's No. 1 rival but Kansas is a close second. I'll take Iowa State plus the points.

Iowa State's stock is up right now after a win over Oklahoma, while Kansas took a hit thanks to its loss to Baylor. But the overall numbers tell the story for this matchup, and the Jayhawks have a substantially better scoring offense and defense as well as the edge most other meaningful categories. My simulations like them to cover the spread with some room to spare.