Kentucky has been slowing its pace down from what we saw in the first half of the season and it's helped eight of its last nine games stay Under the total. UCLA, which averages 90 ppg and shoots 52 percent --- both of which lead the nation -- has been held to 79 or fewer points in five of its last seven games. The Bruins have stayed Under the total in nine of the last 12. Both teams are a long way removed from UCLA's 97-92 win at Kentucky in December, which flew over the total of 176. Look for Kentucky to slow this one down enough to keep it Under.

Revenge is on the mind of Kentucky, which lost to UCLA at home in their December meeting. When both teams are in single-elimination mode, the revenge factor can give the underdog an edge in focus. Kentucky also will have the default home-court edge in Memphis. My power ratings have Kentucky by two. Take the Wildcats.

I’ve long believed this Kentucky team would save its best for when it matters most, and the Wildcats have a chance to prove me right Friday in their rematch with UCLA. The Bruins upset Kentucky as a double-figure underdog in their first meeting behind a memorable display of shooting and efficiency. Lost in that effort is how well Kentucky played to take the game to the wire. Ultimately, the Wildcats are better on the defensive end and the team that gets key stops should win this rematch. I’m backing the underdog.

The public is getting this one right. It has pushed the line 2.5 points, flipping the favorite to the deserving Bruins. Forget UCLA’s December win over the Wildcats in the bluegrass. The Bruins have gotten better, mixing in a bit of defense with their incomparable offense. As gifted as the Wildcats are, they have just one scoring threat in the paint, plus gifted guards Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox too often resort to solo play. UCLA is all about teamwork, and that spells the difference.

UCLA should be favored here. The Bruins lead the nation in scoring and shooting percentage and they'll be efficient enough to do damage against Kentucky's strong defense. Back UCLA to handle the Wildcats for the second time this season.

I've been higher on UCLA than most for a while now, and I have the Bruins beating Kentucky in 71 percent of my simulations. UCLA already beat the Wildcats at Rupp Arena back in December, ending Kentucky's 42-game home win streak. TJ Leaf, Lonzo Ball, Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton will be too much for a Kentucky team that has not wowed at all in this tournament. Back the Bruins.