The opening spread in some markets on this one was +3, on the low side against a team that has been nigh-unbeatable in its building. But the Jayhawks did lose their previous home game, and have fallen into a pattern of tight finishes as suggested by their 0-4 ATS slump at home. The Mountaineers are maddeningly inconsistent, yet the defense has no peer when clicking on all cylinders. They are 6-1 straight-up in the past seven outings against ranked opponents, including a recent 16-point thrashing of KU. Jayhawks standout Frank Mason Jr. has been ill.

Following an overtime home loss to Iowa State, the Jayhawks averted a near-disaster with tight road wins against Kansas State and Texas Tech last week. They remain in first place in the Big 12 as they host West Virginia on Monday night. The Mountaineers won the first meeting and have a history of being a thorn for Kansas, but this is a bad spot. Frank Mason and Josh Jackson are likely the best backcourt duo in the country, and they will help Kansas get revenge with a standout performance.

My simulations have this game at 160 total points, making a clear pick on the Over 155.

I'm also going to grab West Virginia +5.5 to go along with the moneyline at +200. This should be a classic Big 12 game that is decided by less than five points.

West Virginia won the first meeting in Morgantown, and I think they have a decent shot at winning again tonight in Lawrence. Betting against the Jayhawks at home hasn't been profitable for the better part of a decade, but +200 is too much value to pass up. This game should come down to the final minute.

Kansas has failed to cover its last four home games, and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six conference affairs. With the line move upward, I'll back a West Virginia side that beat the Jayhawks by 16 in Morgantown. Take the points.

My projection model sees West Virginia completing a season sweep of Big 12 rival Kansas when they meet again Monday in Lawrence. The Mountaineers dominated their first matchup in Morgantown, and they looked back in top form Saturday in a blowout of Kansas State. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks found themselves in another taxing game, and could be in a flat spot after using a ton of energy to pull out an 80-79 win at Texas Tech. The timing is ripe for the Jayhawks to absorb another rare home loss.