I have a clear pick on the Over 127.5 with my simulations indicating this game should be closer to 132 points. This game has an above average probability of overtime in my model.

SportsLine simulations suggest the sneaky-good Red Raiders are headed toward a straight-up victory Monday when they host Baylor. Although they are just 4-8 in Big 12 play, their last four losses have come by 10 combined points, the last two by one point each. Moreover, Texas Tech fought Baylor to the wire on the road before falling 65-61. This time, look for the Red Raiders to finish the job and get a much-needed victory.