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    Odds to win 2021 Pac-12 championship: Arizona State leapfrogs Oregon as favorite; conference may miss out on College Football Playoff again

    Oregon's upset loss to Stanford on Saturday was not good news for the Pac-12.
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    In today's Morning After college football story, CBS Sports' Tom Fornelli writes that Oregon's hopes to reach the College Football Playoff are not dead even though the Ducks were upset 31-24 in overtime at mediocre Stanford on Saturday. Not sure I agree with that. The loss dropped Oregon from No. 3 to No. 8 in the AP Top 25, the Ducks to +180 second-favorites at Caesars Sportsbook to win the Pac-12 title behind Arizona State (+175) and +5000 long shots to win the national championship.

    For what it's worth, ESPN's All State Playoff Predictor now gives Oregon just a five percent chance of making the playoff. The problem for Coach Mario Cristobal's team is that not a single ranked opponent remains on the regular-season schedule, although the foe in a possible Pac-12 Championship Game like Arizona State could be ranked. Certainly, another loss kills any Oregon hopes for the playoff, and the Ducks could easily fall at UCLA (Oct. 23), at Washington (Nov. 6) or at Utah (Nov. 20). They are off this week.

    Arizona State entered the AP Top 25 at No. 22 this week. The Sun Devils' lone loss was at a very good BYU team on Sept. 18, 27-17. ASU was an underdog this past Saturday at then-No. 20 UCLA but won 42-23. That gave Coach Herm Edwards' team the inside track to the Pac-12 South title as the only other school in the South without at least one conference loss is Utah. Southern Cal, the preseason favorite, is 2-2 in league play.  ASU is -10.5 Friday at home vs. Stanford.

    Since the College Football Playoff began in 2014, the Pac-12 has had just two schools make it: Oregon that first season and Washington in 2016. It's now much more likely than not that the conference is left out again. With struggling Clemson falling out of the Top 25, it's also likely the ACC misses out for the first time. (The SEC might get two teams in.)

    With two Power 5 leagues out, that bodes very well for Cincinnati (+2500) to become the first Group of 5 school to make the playoff. The Bearcats ended Notre Dame's 26-game home winning streak Saturday and are up to No. 5 in the AP Top 25, their best ranking since Brian Kelly's 2009 Bearcats were No. 4 in the first week of November. Of course, Kelly is now at Notre Dame.

    Cincinnati is -28.5 at home Friday vs. Temple and will be heavily favored the rest of the regular season in the watered-down American Athletic Conference. Notre Dame's road to the playoff looks very tough because the Irish don't have a ranked school left on the schedule and obviously don't play in a conference title game. They are -1.5 this Saturday at Virginia Tech. 

    Who wins every college football game? And which teams will sink your bankroll? Join SportsLine now to get college football picks every week, all from the model that simulates every game 10,000 times and went 56-36 on top-rated picks last season.

    Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays

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