Auburn vs. Alabama Iron Bowl pick, odds: Spread could drop with Nick Saban out due to COVID-19

The marquee matchup around college football Saturday in Week 13 is clearly No. 22 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, but the Iron Bowl this year will be missing its biggest name: Tide coach Nick Saban. He has tested positive for COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms, which means there's no chance of returning by Saturday unlike a similar Saban situation earlier this year. Alabama is currently a 24.5-point favorite on the William Hill Sportsbook college football odds, but history tells us that could drop a couple of points by kickoff.

Ahead of Bama's Oct. 17 game vs. then-No. 3 Georgia, Saban also tested positive and had to isolate from the team. However, he was asymptomatic and then had three straight days of negative tests and was able to return for the game, which Alabama won 41-24. That has been the Tide's smallest margin of victory this season.

The Dawgs-Tide spread dropped from -6 to -4 with the news Saban probably would not be on the sideline but then closed back at -6 when he was cleared. Thus, it's possible this spread could see a similar drop, although Georgia was a better opponent than Auburn and it would also depend on the betting action at William Hill.

Because Saban is symptomatic this time, the test will not be categorized as a false positive as it was earlier. The 69-year-old will have to isolate for at least 10 days, which would put his return Dec. 4, one day before the scheduled regular-season finale at Arkansas.

Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, a former head coach at Washington and USC and a candidate for the open South Carolina job, will take over head-coaching duties. Sarkisian is 46-35 straight up as a head coach – although this would count toward Saban's record – and 45-35-1 against the spread. His teams on average were 2.2-point favorites.

Alabama has won its past four home Iron Bowl games, coming by an average margin of 27.3 points. It should be noted that the Tide have lost their past six Iron Bowl games in Tuscaloosa when Saban was NOT the team's head coach. 

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