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Indiana vs. Michigan Big Ten Tournament odds, bracketology: Bubble Hoosiers expected to miss NCAA Tournament with loss Thursday

Indiana faces Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday morning.
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The Big Ten Tournament gets off to an early start Thursday from Indianapolis with an 11:30 a.m. ET tip between No. 9 seed Indiana and No. 8 Michigan. While the Wolverines should be an NCAA Tournament at-large team even with a loss, and they will have star Hunter Dickinson back, the Hoosiers almost surely will not be Dancing if they lose. Michigan opened -2 at Caesars Sportsbook but is now -3. Click here for model picks. 

DraftKings does list odds to make the NCAA Tournament with Indiana (18-12, 9-11 Big Ten) listed +200 for yes and -250 for no. Coach Mike Woodson's team would be on the right side of the bubble if it was able to win its final two regular-season games, but IU was upset in the final seconds at home by Rutgers on March 2 and then lost by two at No. 8 Purdue on Saturday. Indiana's only two wins in its past nine games are over bad teams Maryland and Minnesota.

In the NET rankings, Indiana is No. 44 but just 3-7 against Quad I opponents. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Indiana among his "First Four Out" and CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has it the same. The Hoosiers lost at home to Michigan 80-62 on Jan. 23 and have dropped nine straight in the series dating to the 2016 Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals in Indianapolis when the Wolverines knocked off top seed IU.

For what it's worth, IU has won six straight in Gainbridge Fieldhouse, including a 64-56 win over Notre Dame in December. This could be the final game at IU for star forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (maybe the NIT invites the Hoosiers, but they might turn it down). Jackson-Davis is averaging 17.4 points (7th in Big Ten), 8.2 rebounds (5th), shooting 57.8 percent from the floor (3rd) and has 71 blocked shots (2nd). He has 31 career double-doubles and IU is 23-8 in those games. To win the Big Ten Tournament, Indiana is +2500.

Michigan (17-13, 11-9 Big Ten) will get head coach Juwan Howard back from suspension for the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines probably clinched an at-large berth in the Big Dance with a shocking 75-69 upset at No. 23 Ohio State on Sunday. Shocking because star big man Hunter Dickinson was out with an illness. He is good to go for Thursday and leads the team in scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounding (8.5 rpg). Dickinson dominated the first meeting with Indiana, putting up 25 points, nine rebounds and four assists.

UM is No. 13 in the NET rankings and among Lunardi's "Last Four Byes" for the NCAA Tournament and "Last Four In" via Palm – thus, the Wolverines probably don't want to lose this or risk a sweat on Selection Sunday. DraftKings has Michigan at -450 to get into the NCAA Tournament and +340 to miss. A win here should do it. To win the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan is +1100.

The winner of this game faces top-seeded and defending tournament champion Illinois on Friday.

Will Indiana be in the NCAA Tournament?

  • No -250
  • Yes +200

Will Michigan be in the NCAA Tournament?

  • Yes -450
  • No +340

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