Steelers vs. Bills NFL Week 5 odds, trends: In Kenny Pickett's first start, Pittsburgh faces its longest odds in Super Bowl era

Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin sure did rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett no favors in naming him the team's starter for Sunday's game at Super Bowl-favored Buffalo and the NFL's top-ranked pass defense. Caesars Sportsbook oddsmakers have little faith in the Steelers as they are 14-point underdogs, the biggest number against them since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. Pittsburgh had been the only team in the league in that span to never be at least a 14-point underdog. The average margin of victory or defeat for the Steelers this season is 5.5 points.

There are a few pieces of good news if you plan to back Pittsburgh. First: Underdogs of 7 or more points are 6-3 against the spread so far in 2022. And the last rookie quarterback to beat the No. 1 pass defense in his first career start was a guy named Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.

Pickett will be the eighth quarterback to make his first career start vs. the Super Bowl favorite (Bills are currently +400) in the last 15 seasons. The previous seven were 1-6 straight up but 5-2 against the spread. The only outright win was Carolina's Kyle Allen in Week 17 of the 2018 seas at New Orleans, but the Saints were resting starters, including Drew Brees.

Pittsburgh is 43-24-2 ATS (64%) as an underdog under Tomlin, the second-best cover percentage in the NFL in that span behind the Patriots – who were rarely underdogs when Tom Brady wore a New England uniform. After last week's upset loss to the Jets, the Steelers are now 0-7 without 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt since he was drafted in 2017, compared to 52-24-1 with him.

Pickett has won as a big underdog before. In 2017, as a freshman at Pitt, he led the 4-7 Panthers to a 24-14 victory against second-ranked Miami, ruining the Hurricanes' undefeated season. Things don't get much easier for Pickett going forward as Pittsburgh's next seven games overall come against teams with a winning record in 2021, which would be the longest such streak by a rookie to start a career since 1950.

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