Colts' playoff odds decrease by nearly 16 percent with Sam Ehlinger starting over Matt Ryan at quarterback

Matt Ryan is a former NFL MVP and probably a future Hall of Famer, but his days as a starting quarterback in the league might be over for good at age 37. The Indianapolis Colts have benched Ryan for second-year player Sam Ehlinger, who has never attempted a regular-season pass in his pro career. Coach Frank Reich – whose job is very much on the line right now – says Ehlinger is the "starter for the rest of the season." It's interesting that Reich chose Ehlinger and not former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. The SportsLine Projection Model has downgraded the Colts with this move. 

The Colts fell to 3-3-1 with a 19-10 loss at Tennessee on Sunday as the Titans swept the season series and now have a crucial tiebreaker. Ryan completed 33 of his 44 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown but also threw back-to-back picks in the second quarter, one returned 76 yards for a touchdown by Andrew Adams – the Titans' only TD of the game.

Ryan injured his shoulder, but Reich was going to make this move regardless. Ryan is fourth in the NFL with 2,008 passing yards but has connected for just nine TDs and leads the league with nine interceptions. He's also lost three fumbles. Ryan is a +600 second favorite at DraftKings to finish as the NFL leader in picks but that's obviously not happening unless Ehlinger goes down injured or Reich changes his mind about the situation.

"Extremely difficult decision, obviously, given the respect and admiration that we have for Matt Ryan," Reich said. "We know, at the quarterback position, that our poor production on offense is not on one person, it's not on Matt Ryan, but we also know, Matt and I talked it through, as head coach and quarterback, ultimately, it doesn't matter. I'm judged on wins and losses. Quarterbacks are judged on points, production and turnovers."

The Colts restructured Ryan's contract in the offseason to guarantee most of the final two years of his contract, meaning it will cost Indianapolis $18 million in cap space to move on next season. Indianapolis gave up a 2022 third-round pick for Ryan, which the Falcons used to take Western Kentucky linebacker DeAngelo Malone. He doesn't play much.

Ehlinger was the 218th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He saw brief action in three games last year but didn't throw a pass. He rushed three times for nine yards. This preseason, he looked great in completing 24-of-29 for 289 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions while rushing for 71 yards and a score on six carries. Nearly all of Ehlinger's preseason production came against an opponent's No. 2 and No. 3 defenses.

"Sam has had a phenomenal preseason," Reich said at the end of the preseason. "It's hard to imagine having a better preseason than he's had. He's done everything he's needed to do."

Ehlinger was an excellent player at the University of Texas and guided the Longhorns to 27 wins as the starting quarterback, the fourth-most in school history. He was the seventh two-time team captain (2019-20) in Texas history. The SportsLine Projection Model (se below) drops the Colts by a half-win for the season and their chances to make the playoffs slip by 15.6%. 

Indianapolis had been a 4-point home favorite for this Sunday's game against Washington, but is now -3.

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