While it's not official as of this writing, it's all but a done deal barring something completely unforeseen: Green Bay seems quite likely to trade quarterback and four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets after Rodgers went on the Pat McAfee Show on Wednesday and declared his intention to play for the Jets and not retire. Rodgers said he made that decision last Friday and is not holding up a trade. The teams are simply working on compensation. Needless to say, the Jets' 2023 NFL futures odds have changed dramatically.
"I made it clear my intention was to play and to play for the New York Jets, and I haven't been holding anything up. It's the compensation that the Packers are trying to get ... The Packers want to move on and have let me know that in so many words," Rodgers said on the show, adding he was 90% sure he was retiring before going on his recent darkness retreat, but that the experience changed his mind.
Weeks ago when Caesars Sportsbook opened odds to win Super Bowl 58, the Jets were +4000 and tied for the 15th-lowest. New York was +1500 yesterday and has dropped to +1400 today with Rodgers' public proclamation, the sixth-shortest odds on the board behind Kansas City (+600), San Francisco (+700), Buffalo (+850), Philadelphia (+850) and Cincinnati (+1000).
The Jets haven't entered the regular season with shorter than +2000 odds since 2011, and their odds are likely to only get even shorter once the public jumps in after the Rodgers trade is finalized. As a Caesars spokesperson said: "Rodgers is already completely baked into the price, but we'd adjust if we continue to get more Jets action."
Rodgers will have at least one Packers teammate with him on the Jets, as New York signed Green Bay wideout Allan Lazard to a four-year, $44 million deal. Last season, Lazard set career highs in catches (60) and receiving yards (788) while adding six touchdowns (the second most of his career). Rodgers asked the Jets to sign Lazard and also has requested the team add Odell Beckham Jr. and two more former Packers teammates in receiver Randall Cobb, a long-time Rodgers friend, and tight end Marcedes Lewis.
Once Tom Brady retired, the Las Vegas Raiders had been the betting favorite at the various sportsbooks to be Rodgers' next team. The Jets overtook them about two weeks ago.
The AFC is absolutely loaded with quarterbacks now. The NFC is completely watered down after losing Rodgers and the three-time MVP Brady. Jalen Hurts is probably the best signal-caller remaining. The AFC is an early -130 favorite over the NFC (+110) to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas.
Rodgers is expected to continue to wear No. 12 as Jets Hall of Famer Joe Namath has given his permission to unretire the jersey. To win a record-tying fifth MVP, Rodgers is +1800. The Jets have never had an NFL MVP (Namath won two AFL MVPs).
If you are wondering, the Jets don't play the Packers this season. Expect the Jets' season-opener to be either a Sunday night or Monday game in Week 1, with Rodgers the marquee attraction. Eagles at Jets, for instance, would be terrific TV.
NFL season win totals should be out by the end of the month, but the SportsLine Projection Model (below) now forecasts New York for 9.3 wins.
|NEW YORK JETS||WINS||WIN%||DIVISION||PLAYOFF||CONF||CHAMP|
|w/ Mike White||8||47.10%||7.40%||29.10%||1.30%||0.40%|
|w/ Aaron Rodgers||9.3||54.70%||19.40%||55.80%||3.70%||1.40%|
| || || || || || || |
|w/ Aaron Rodgers||10||58.80%||48.30%||74.50%||8.60%||3.80%|
|w/ Jordan Love||9||52.90%||33.20%||57.90%||4.80%||2.00%|
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