The Los Angeles Dodgers are pretty clearly the best team in baseball this season with an 81-35 record, six games clear of any other club. They have been an underdog just three times, so it's not a surprise that they are favored this afternoon (2:10 ET) in a series finale and possible playoff preview at Milwaukee. What is surprising is that the Brewers are home dogs at Caesars Sportsbook (-105) with reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the mound. It's the first time that's happened this decade, according to my research.
Finding odds for an individual starting pitcher isn't all that easy, but Burnes wasn't an underdog at home in the shortened 2020 season when he made only five starts in Milwaukee. In 2021, the shortest home price I could find on Burnes at home was -125. This year, it was -133 vs. Atlanta on May 18. Burnes allowed four runs over six innings in a no-decision.
Burnes (8-5, 2.39 ERA, 181Ks, 0.92 WHIP), who is +1200 at Caesars Sportsbook to repeat as Cy Young winner, has made 17 quality starts this year and opponents are batting just .182 against him. He has a franchise-record 20 career double-digit strikeout games, including eight this season, which is a game shy of the team record set by Ben Sheets in 2004.
The right-hander is 1-1 with a 10.38 ERA in 8.2 career regular-season innings vs. the Dodgers. He faced them once last year in the penultimate game of the regular season and allowed three runs in two innings. Justin Turner has had success off him, going 2-for-4 with a double and homer.
The Dodgers look to win the series as they close a seven-game road trip and start lefty Andrew Heaney. He has been limited to seven starts due to injury but is 1-0 with a 1.16 ERA. It's Heaney's first career outing vs. the Brewers. LA closer Craig Kimbrel has pitched in the past two games and may not be available.
Late update: Brewers have since become slight favorites because Mookie Betts is not in Dodgers lineup.
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