After a glorified scrimmage against Albany in which Baylor showed zilch to its future adversaries, the Bears luck into an opponent with key absentees. Cougar WRs Puka Nacua (an NFL prospect) and Gunner Romney appear out. They accounted for well over half of BYU’s receiving yards last year. If BYU reverts to a ground attack, it must perform eons better than a year ago against Baylor, which allowed the Cougars 67 yards on 24 carries.

Baylor had their way with BYU in Waco a season ago, but with the Cougars returning more talent, a small line in their favor seemed reasonable. However, news came in today that BYU will be without its two best receivers for this game, and that could play right into the hand of the Baylor defense. Gunner Romney already missed last week's win over USF, but Puka Nacua scored twice before leaving the game with an injury. He will definitely be missed. I was tempted to take the money line, but I'll go ahead and take the points.

I was probably going to pass here but will take the points knowing a possible push because BYU will be without its top two receivers in Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney. They accounted for 60% of BYU's returning receiving yards from last season. Nacua had two rushing touchdowns before being hurt last week vs. USF and Romney didn't play. If that makes BYU one-dimensional, it plays right into the hands of Baylor's excellent defense. I'm a BYU fan going back to when it was Quarterback U, so I hope the Cougars do win ... by less than three points. I'd much prefer getting 3.5, but that's not happening with this injury news (may want to buy the half point) and some books already dropping this to 2.5.

Last year, BYU was both outclassed and bullied in a 38-24 loss at Baylor , both rarities for the Cougars against Power 5 competition. But the stage is set Saturday for some payback as the Cougars return almost all their key players and they appeared to have top-10 potential in a 50-21 rout of South Florida. The Cougars piled up 573 yards of total offense while limiting former Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon to 173 yards with an interception. Baylor will be fine this year but the situational spot favors BYU.

The total simply isn't high enough here. These teams combined for 62 points in Waco last season, and I don't see this game looking much different. Blake Shapen and Jaren Hall are excellent quarterbacks, and while Baylor's defense is stout, the Cougars were able to move the ball on it last year. Meanwhile, BYU's defense wasn't great last season, and I don't think it's improved much this year.