As if the Mets don't have enough problems, now they see a hot Spencer Strider...

FanDuel at -120. Mitchell Parker has really struggled of late. Over his last ten starts, he’s failed to clear this line eight times, and has an ERA of 6.75 with a hard hit rate of 40% (the latter is 18th highest of 279 pitchers in that span). While the Padres have struggled against lefties of late, this is a nice spot against the soft-throwing Parker, who they shelled last season.

Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker is allowing a ridiculous 50 percent hard-hit rate, and he has not thrown more than 87 pitches in seven straight starts. In limited at-bats, the Padres own a collective .931 OPS against Parker. Jackson Merrill has returned, making the San Diego lineup tougher to navigate. Look for Parker to stay Under this prop total for the ninth time in his last 11 starts.

The Dads have lost three straight starts of Stephen Kolek (3-2, 3.59), but I still think this number is a good 30 cents low. San Diego got Jackson Merrill back off the IL yesterday and proceeded to win for the third time in four games. The Washington bullpen imploded yesterday in a blowout loss at the Dodgers. Tonight's starting pitcher Mitchell Parker is 0-4 with a 5.93 ERA away. Merrill is 2-for-2 off him.

Abreu isn't a hitter that walks much and I don't trust the Red Sox offense as much without Devers in there. So we'll take the total bases, as Abreu has multiple hits in each of his first two games back from a 12 day IL stint. He pinch hit yesterday late in the game, after having the day off, so he should be fresh tonight. He faces Jack Kochanowicz and lefties have hit 12 of the 15 home runs he's given up this year, with a .305 average. I'm betting on Abreu to go for at least an extra base hit, if not multiple hits.

Walker Buehler has been dreadful lately and he's also particularly bad on the road. Kochanowicz has also been bad for most of the season, but he's improved over the last couple of starts and I expect him to limit the damage against a watered down Red Sox lineup in the midst of a west coast road trip. Not interested in messing with the Red Sox bullpen as I want to isolate Buehler in this one in the First 5.

Working with pitching coach Barry Enright, Angels' 24-year-old starter Jack Kochanowicz has tweaked the grip on his changeup and the results are evident. He fanned eight Yankees last time out, in 5.1 innings. On Monday he faces a Red Sox team that strikes out at the third-highest rate. In addition, Boston averages an MLB-high 10.18 strikeouts on the road after fanning 11 times at San Francisco on Sunday. I grabbed the plus-money on Kochanowicz to rack up at least five strikeouts.

Ben Brown enters Monday with 88 strikeouts in 74.1 innings pitched (10.7 K/9), making him very enticing in this spot. If he can avoid a blow-up inning early, the 25-year-old has the stuff to eclipse this number on Monday.

No worries about the wind blowing out at Busch Stadium as at Wrigley Field this weekend when the Cubs were involved in a series of fireworks displays vs. the Mariners. Conditions figure to be a bit more calm tonight, but Craig Counsell will be going with perhaps the least-reliable component in his rotation, Ben Brown, whose numbers (5.09 ERA in June; 5.82 ERA away) don't inspire much confidence. As for the Cards, they were cooled off by Cincy's NL Cy Young contender Andrew Abbott on Sunday, but had won five straight beforehand, and Matthew Liberatore got back on track last Tuesday vs. the Chisox when allowing just 2 runs across 6 IP in an eventual 12-2 St Louis win. Play Cards on the Money Line.

Matthew Liberatore is having a career best season for the Cardinals. However the 25 year old starter has surrendered 19 ER in his previous four starts and does not appear to be in good form. That could spell doom against a Cubs lineup that possesses the 6th best OPS versus opposing southpaws, in addition to ranking 4th in OPS overall.

FanDuel. Another juicy under on a strikeout prop, but this one fits the bill as a 1.5u risk for me (would bet up to -165). Bailey Ober is under this line in 12 of 15 starts, with a high mark of six strikeouts. He struggled previously against the Mariners (four strikeouts in four innings), and now gets them at home. Seattle’s home/road splits actually favor the Mariners when they’re away: only a 20% K% against right handed pitching, and a .764 OPS. They’re throwing six lefties at Ober tonight, which is his worse split (16% strikeout rate).

Three of the first four meetings between these two have gone over nine runs. Pittsburgh has never faced Chad Patrick, and he owns a 2.94 home ERA. The Pirates are also hitting .210 on the road this season and just had a three-game series against Texas at home where it was over 90 degrees for the entire weekend. It’s a bullpen day for the Pirates and their bullpen has gotten better as the season as went on, now owning a 3.99 ERA. Pittsburgh is also near the bottom of the majors in on-base percentage, runs, home runs, and slugging percentage.

It's scorching hot in Milwaukee like pretty much everywhere else but clearly the roof will not be open. The overall total is 8.5, so I think 5 is worthwhile play but I wouldn't do 4.5. Only one of our books offers 5. The Pirates have never seen Brewers rookie Chad Patrick, who has a 2.94 home ERA. Pittsburgh has the worst road OPS in the majors. Bucs rookie and pseudo-opener Braxton Ashcraft has been very good as a reliever with a 1.54 ERA and the Brewers haven't seen him. This will be his first start. Maybe we push.

The Pirates trying to patch it together with the starting pitching. The Pirates are terrible on the road (11-27) and are 24th in MLB on the RL on the road. The Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11, scoring 62 runs in that span. The kid on the mound for them has been very stout at home.

The White Sox are 27-10 on the first 5 RL at home - best in MLB. They have led after 5 in 5 of Shane Smith's last 8 starts. Smith is 17th in MLB among qualified starters with a 2.53 ERA in the first 5 innings. Eduardo Rodriguez has been a mess with a 6.21 ERA on the road.