Logan Gilbert looks to build on his 80% success rate on this player prop line. …

Merrill Kelly looks to clear this player prop line for the eleventh time in thirteen starts. …

Is Luke Fickell feeling a bit of heat in Madison? ...

Kansas State and Iowa State each return 12 starters from last year...

George Springer, one of MLB's biggest All-Star snubs, is off to a hot start with 5 home runs in his last 10 games. He's up to 16 HRs and an .869 OPS this season—an impressive jump from last year's .674 OPS and 19 HRs. Jacob Lopez has struggled recently, allowing 7 earned runs in 7.2 innings over his last two starts. Right-handed batters have hit 7 of the 8 home runs Lopez has allowed and have a .772 OPS against him. We set Springer's line at +314 to homer today.

More back-and-forth lately for the Halos than we'll see in Sunday's Sinner-Alcaraz Wimbledon final, as the Angels haven't won back-to-back games since June 24-25 vs. the Bosox. The pitching staff has also had a bumpy week, allowing 42 runs across the past five games vs. the Rangers and D-backs, and Saturday starter Yusei Kikuchi wasn't especially sharp in his last trip to the mound, allowing four runs and five hits on Monday vs. Texas. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen is beginning to hit stride in the Arizona rotation, off of his best back-to-back starts of the season, allowing just one run and 10 hits wile striking out 19 in just 13 IP during wins over the Giants and Padres. Play D-backs on Money Line

We got a huge pitching match-up in Houston tonight with Framber Valdez pitching against Jacob deGrom, but the side story is that the Astros have lost four straight after sweeping the Dodgers last weekend. That's the beginning of me liking deGrom in this matchup. Valdez gave up four runs in his last start, but also didn't allow any runs in his previous two starts. The Rangers lost 6-5 to the Angels in deGrom’s last start, but he won his previous six starts, getting the winning decision in five of them. He looks like he is back in prime form. The Rangers have won three of their last four. Texas to win.

FanDuel. As great as Jacobs DeGrom has been this season, his strikeout rate against right handed batters is a pedestrian 21%. That’s pertinent in today’s matchup, as he’s likely to face 7-8 right handed hitters in the Astros lineup. Overall, DeGrom is under this line in ten of eighteen starts. While he did finish with seven strikeouts in his previous matchup with the Astros, he faced a season high 30 hitters (five more than any other start). The Astros overall are a tough team to strikeout (20.6% versus righties on the season).

Framber Valdez is having a terrific season but this is a big number for him. He’s facing a Rangers lineup that has been very stingy as of late and has taken nearly 200 combined at bats against Valdez.

Maybe we have a real pitcher's duel here between Jacob deGrom and Framber Valdez. Except that neither of these two is likely to last beyond the sixth inning if that far. And the chances of a low-scoring affair have been lessened by the presence of the Rangers, whose offense continued its recent surge in last night's 7-3 win. That's now 44 runs scored across the past five games for the surging Texas offense, with overs in each of those contests. Also note Valdez is off of his worst start since the beginning of May, allowing 4 runs and 7 hits (plus his first homers since May) in 6 IP vs. the Dodgers last Saturday. Play Rangers-Astros Over

The New York Mets are once again favorites as they face the Kansas City Royals. Yesterday, it appeared the Royals would take game one up 3-1 in the eighth inning before the Mets had two big innings to get the victory. Despite Frankie Montas struggles the Mets have more than enough team hitting to get by the Royals for a second straight game. Take the Mets.

James Wood is in a bit of a slump this week, but this matchup presents a good opportunity to bounce back. He has a .931 OPS and 15 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers. Brandon Woodruff was sharp in his first start back from Tommy John surgery, allowing just 1 ER with 8 strikeouts, but his velocity was down. That's often a sign of potential regression, especially for a pitcher returning after two years. We set Wood's line at +295 to homer today.

Crikey, we don't see a F5 total of 6 often when games aren't played in Denver (self-explanatory) or Sacramento (an apparent jet stream or something right over that minor-league park). But the winds aren't blowing out at GABP today. Colorado's Bradley Blalock is decidedly not good at 0-2 with a 12.94 ERA but I also think it may be a bullpen-type day. And while the Rockies stink there, too, it's usually helpful in keeping offenses in check simply as seeing a different pitcher every other inning or so. Cincy starter Brady Singer is solid enough, and we know the Rox can't hit a lick. Might push and I probably would not play 5.5 -- which all our other books have.

Cool, a -1 popped up. May well push as the Rays are very solid, albeit not playing well at the moment. But with Garrett Crochet on the hill, we think Boston prevails. Not a single Rays batter has a career hit off him. Tampa is .500 vs. lefties compared to five games over against righties. This is why I love -1, the MLB version of Draw No Bet. I don't believe the Red Sox are worth -190, so I'm completely fine risking the push (I've evolved) and hoping for a two-run or more win. Seriously, I might play -1 the rest of the season if I could ...

Brandon Woofruff struck out eight batters in what was his first MLB start since 2023 but 6.5 is too high of a line in start #2. He threw just 70 pitches and with his velocity down, he should get knocked around sooner rather than later. I'll admit though, early on he has the advantage of uncertainty and he's throwing a new cutter so things can get sketchy here if that pitch is working well. Something interesting though is that two of the strikeouts in that last start were looking on great pitches that barely caught the zone and Woodruff get's Alfonzo Marquez behind the plate today, who grades out as one of MLB's most hitter friendly umpires.