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NFL | Cincinnati 20 @ Kansas City 23 | 01/29 | 11:30 PM UTC

Travis Kelce UNDER 76.5 Total Receiving Yards -145

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Apparently Kelce's back is legitimately an issue and he was a game-time call -- but of course will play. Surely the Bengals players know about that injury, though, and I'm not saying they will target Kelce's back ... uh yeah they will. So, I have to lean under here on the chance Kelce leaves injured or truly is limited.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+695 22-10 IN LAST 32 NFL PICKS

NFL | Cincinnati 20 @ Kansas City 23 | 01/29 | 11:30 PM UTC

Kansas City -1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: There’s been no stauncher backer of the Bengals down the stretch than your’s truly, but even I am shocked that the contrarian play in the AFC Championship Game is the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. There seems to be an inherent bias against Kansas City with Tyreek Hill no longer on the roster, and while the offense may be less explosive, it’s actually more efficient. Mahomes with no rest, rehabilitation or even a brace gutted out a win, and now he’s had all the aforementioned items to aid his recovery. As noted last week, Cincinnati over Buffalo was a total no-brainer, but it does not change Cincy's recent close games against teams with far worse offenses like Baltimore and New England. With Travis Kelce playing, I'm willing to buck the trendy play and lay the short number with KC.

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Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
+700 17-9-1 IN LAST 27 NFL PICKS
+600 6-0-1 IN LAST 7 CIN ATS PICKS

NFL | Cincinnati 20 @ Kansas City 23 | 01/29 | 11:30 PM UTC

UNDER 47.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: The three Burrow-Mahomes matchups have averaged 55 points. So why an Under? Patrick Mahomes must endure a bum ankle that could be especially uncomfortable when the temperatures dip into the teens. Two key targets, TE Travis Kielce and WR Mecole Hartman, also are ailing to a lesser extent. The Bengals yielded the fifth fewest points in the regular season. On Cincinnati's side, the O-line is missing three regulars, though it did shine last week when short-handed. Kansas City went 2-7 Under at home, similar to the Bengals' 6-3 Under record on the road.

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Mike Tierney

Top Dog
+1265 56-39-4 IN LAST 99 NFL PICKS
+228 11-8-1 IN LAST 20 CIN O/U PICKS
+406 16-11-2 IN LAST 29 KC O/U PICKS

NHL | Washington 1 @ Toronto 5 | 01/29 | 10:00 PM UTC

Toronto -140

WIN

ANALYSIS: This is somewhat of a chase from the crushing Bruins loss to Florida yesterday. Unbelievable. Yes, Auston Matthews is out but the Caps are without the likes of Nic Dowd and Tom Wilson so I'll roll the dice here on the Leafs as we won't get them at home so cheaply very often (also slight lean on under 6). Ilya Samsonov has been brilliant at home other than when he burned us Friday -- he wasn't originally to start so maybe that threw off his preparation. Samsonov has the added motivation of facing his former Caps team. Washington comes off a Thursday home win over Pittsburgh but is 0-6 in is past six after a win.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+697 30-13 IN LAST 43 NHL ML PICKS
+457 18-9 IN LAST 27 TOR ML PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 WAS ML PICKS

CBB | Drake 79 @ Belmont 61 | 01/29 | 8:00 PM UTC

Belmont +1

LOSS

ANALYSIS: This just jumped on my radar as Drake has ruled out star Tucker DeVries with some sort of elbow infection. He averages 18.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game. As it is, the Bulldogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. Belmont is 4-1 ATS in its past five at home.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1942 70-39-1 IN LAST 110 CBB PICKS
+390 5-1-1 IN LAST 7 DRAKE ATS PICKS

CBB | Rutgers 82 @ Iowa 93 | 01/29 | 7:00 PM UTC

Iowa -186

WIN

ANALYSIS: Iowa reportedly will see the return of Patrick McCaffery from personal leave today and that's huge as the junior and Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffrey's son averages 12.8 points and 4.8 rebounds and is a good three-point shooter. Because McCaffery wasn't dealing with an injury, there shouldn't be any minutes limitations. (We need big games from McCaffery and a certain McCaffrey on the 49ers today! Not sure which is the more popular spelling?) Iowa continues to lead the Big Ten in scoring, averaging 80.7 points per game, and ranks eighth in the country with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.59. Rutgers has improved from garbage the past couple of years to at least decent on the road (2-3 SU), but Iowa is 9-2 SU & ATS at home.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1942 70-39-1 IN LAST 110 CBB PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 IOWA ML PICKS

NFL | Cincinnati 20 @ Kansas City 23 | 01/29 | 11:30 PM UTC

Jerick McKinnon OVER 28.5 Total Receiving Yards -121

LOSS

ANALYSIS: McKinnon was a surprising non-factor in the passing game last week, but that should be an aberration. He has been a preferred red-zone target, with 56 catches and nine TDs this season. With Patrick Mahomes possibly limited, quick-release passes and/or designed screens could be integral to the game plan. Look for McKinnon to do some work in the passing game and clip this number.

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Josh Nagel

Senior Analyst
+60 4-3 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS

CBB | Rider 78 @ Fairfield 69 | 01/29 | 7:00 PM UTC

Fairfield -145

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Fairfield seems to have found its stride on a four-game winning streak and only one of those was at home. Fairfield's last five-game winning streak in the MAAC regular season came in February 2016. The Stags have allowed 60 points or fewer in four consecutive games and 11 times in total this season, posting a record of 9-2 in those. They lead the MAAC and rank 40th nationally with 63.8 points per game allowed. Against MAAC opponents, Fairfield has conceded a conference-low 60.9 points per game. For what it's worth, the Stags swept the Broncs last season. While I'm on the ML, Rider is 2-6 ATS in its past eight.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1942 70-39-1 IN LAST 110 CBB PICKS

NFL | Cincinnati 20 @ Kansas City 23 | 01/29 | 11:30 PM UTC

Kansas City -130

WIN

ANALYSIS: Anyone who has followed this rollercoaster this spread has taken could have both sides at +2.5 by now. The number fluctuated based on the speculation regarding the health of Patrick Mahomes, who will be playing on a sprained ankle. The Bengals' rapid transformation from perennial cellar dweller to perennial contender overnight has been fun to watch, but they are no longer the adorable underdog. The verbal jabs they have taken were heard by the Chiefs, who still have more big-game experience and the home-field edge in this matchup. In what looks to be a growing rivalry for AFC supremacy, the Chiefs will even the score Sunday.

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Josh Nagel

Senior Analyst
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ML PICKS

NFL | San Francisco 7 @ Philadelphia 31 | 01/29 | 8:00 PM UTC

San Francisco +3

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The 49ers are in a value spot at this key number, which finally moved to +3 after hanging around at +2.5 for most of the week. The only loss the Eagles suffered with Jalen Hurt under center was to the Washington Commanders, who ran the ball effectively and forced Philadelphia into four turnovers. It goes without saying that San Francisco has much better personnel than Washington, and a full field goal is the value side in what rates to be an air-tight grinder.

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Josh Nagel

Senior Analyst
+60 4-3 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS
+265 5-2 IN LAST 7 SF ATS PICKS
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