Bob's Past Picks
Los Angeles has lost seven of Reid Detmers last eight starts. However, the line has been creeping down in the Angels favor. They’ve lost three straight and are hitting .204 over their last seven days. Seattle’s offense haven’t been much better, hitting .211 over their last seven and only scoring five runs, or more, in five of their last seven games. With how the line has been moving and the public still all over the Mariners, it seems like a hefty price for Bryce Miller.
San Diego is 18-10 on the road this season. They took the first game of the series with their ace on the hill, but now are handing the ball to Randy Vasquez, owning a 5.82 ERA in his last seven games. The Royals have won three of their last four games following a home loss and still lead in the league in batting at home, hitting .277 with a .798 OPS.
This total is a point lower than game four. The first three games of the series went over when the total was in the range of 207/207.5. Now, we see a similar total again. This game should be another defensive battle especially since it’s yet another elimination game for Minnesota. The Timberwolves also shot 52.7% from the floor and 45.8% from beyond the arc, their best shooting performance of the series. There should be some regression for them, offensively, leading to a more grind it out type of game in the second half.
Washington is 8-2 SU when Trevor Williams has started this season. The Braves have struggled without Ronald Acuna Jr., dropping two of three thus far against Washington. In the month of May, Atlanta has struggled against righties, 23rd in team OPS, and now faces Williams owning a 2.73 road ERA. It’s a bullpen day for the Braves and their lefty starter, Ray Kerr, has allowed eight earned runs in his last 10.1 innings.
Jaden Hardy is averaging less than 11 minutes this series. He’s only taken four three-pointers thus far. Hardy didn’t attempt one in the first game and only shot one in game three. He’s gone under this number in two of three and with his limited minutes in a potential close out game, it’s possible these low minutes stay the same.
San Francisco is 4-1 in their last five games. However, Blake Snell they’re 1-3 SU this season when Blake Snell takes the mound. Snell owns a 11.40 ERA while allowing three runs, or more, in all four starts thus far and hasn’t pitched more than 4.2 innings. The Phillies have been hitting .266 with a .761 OPS against lefties and are 8-1 SU off a road loss this season.
Dereck Lively continues to see an increase in minutes. He’s averaging 26 minutes over the last five games, going over 17 points and rebounds in four out of five games and seven of the last 10 playoff games. He’s gone over this number in three out of four games against Minnesota this season.
Daniel Gafford continues to show his value as the starter. However, he’s still only averaging 22 minutes over the last 10 games. Gafford has had 15 points and rebounds, or more, in eight of the last nine games. He’s also gone over this mark in three of the last four home playoff games. He and Lively have shown they should be in the conversation for one of the top front courts moving forward.
Taj Bradley comes off striking out 10 in his last outing. His last two starts were against Boston, who’s currently 3rd in the league in strikeouts on the season. Bradley has gone over this mark in all three starts thus far. However, he now faces the Royals, who strikeout the 2nd fewest in the league, only 6.91 times per game.
Atlanta has lost the first two games of this series. This may be a high number for Chris Sale; however, he’s had eight strikeouts, or more, in four straight. He now faces a Pirates team that has the 4th highest strikeouts on the season thus far. Pittsburgh is also strikeouts out the 2nd most in the league over the last 15 days.
Tyrese Haliburton is unlikely to play tonight. Indiana will look towards their deep bench for more offensive production with him out. Obi Toppin has had 10 points, or more, in nine out of 13 games this season when Haliburton hasn’t played. He also had 10 points, or more, in five of the last six home playoff games and 10 of the last 13 playoff games overall.
Naz Reid continues to be productive off the bench. The NBA’s 6th man of the year has had 15 points and rebounds, or more, in six of the last eight games. Reid has also gone over this mark in four out of the last five meetings against Dallas this season. He’s averaging 25 minutes, 15.6 points and 6.4 rebounds against this Mavericks thus far.
Dereck Lively has really upped his game this postseason. He’s averaging 26 minutes over the last five games, going over 15 points and rebounds in four out of five games. He’s gone over this number in two out of three games against Minnesota this season and four out of the last six road games in the playoffs.
Daniel Gafford has been losing some minutes to Dereck Lively. However, Gafford is still the starter, but only averaging 22 minutes over the last 10 games. Gafford has had 15 points and rebounds, or more, in seven of the last eight games. He’s also gone over this mark in four of the last five away playoff games. He needs to continue to be productive, so he doesn’t continue to lose more minutes to Lively.
T.J. McConnell is averaging 21 minutes over the last 10 games. During that span, he’s averaging 12.2 points and 5.8 assists per game. McConnell has also had 15 points and assists, or more, in eight out of the last 11 playoffs games. He’s proven that he can be productive off the bench and should continue to see 20+ minutes per game.