Frankie Montas start to the season has been a bit of a roller coaster thus far. Montas strikeout metrics do not look good and the 31 year old hurler is averaging a 8.8% SwStr% which is significantly lower than is 12.8% career average. He will face the toughest lineup in the league in the Dodgers who unsurprisingly have tremendous career numbers against Montas, in addition to just 7 Ks over 55 career ABs.

This is just a huge number for Josh Hart who has been tremendous in this series, however so much has to go right for a 6'4'' guard to eclipse at least 18 combined rebounds and assists. I also believe we could see fewer possessions in this game compared to what we saw earlier in the series as well. As well know, fewer possessions = fewer opportunities for rebounds and assists. This number is ultimately closer to Harts ceiling.

Hunter Brown has had a brutal start to the season and possesses an ERA of 7.79, in addition to a WHIP of 2.01. Despite the ugly numbers he has some solid strikeout numbers, albeit a fairly small sample. However it appears that he's even running hot/above expectations with strikeouts as well. Brown gets a tough draw against a Brewers lineup that is 14th in K Rate, on top of the 3rd highest OPS against opposing right handed pitchers.

Triston McKenzie has had a solid start to the season and has racked up at least six Ks in four of his last five outings, however his underlying metrics depict a concerning story. Mckenzie's 9.2% SwStr% is significantly lower than his career average of 12.3%. He will also face a Twins lineup that has been much tougher/stingier as of late, Minnesota possesses a top 10 OPS, as well as a bottom 10 K Rate against opposing right handed pitching since April 1.

Chris Bassitt is having a down season and his strikeout metrics paint a concerning picture. Bassitt's 7.6% Swinging Strike percentage is the lowest mark of his 10 year career besides his rookie season. He will face a Tampa Bay lineup that has been the epitome of average this season, however the Rays projected lineup has excellent career numbers, in addition to a low K Rate against Bassitt.

Getting this prop out ASAP as it is on the move. Cortes looks healthy to me and his K Metrics are all in line with this career averages. He gets a great matchup against the White Sox who sport the 4th highest K rate against opposing southpaws.

Jared Jones has proven to be one of the MLB truly elite young arms and at age 22 is already proving why the Pirates have a very bright future. Jones has been held under this line in only 3 of his 8 starts on the season, however the Pirates are careful with him and he has only eclipsed 90 pitches twice. He is facing a Cubs offense that not only rank in the top 10 in OPS over the last 2 weeks, but that Jones has also faced in his previous start. Considering the pirates reluctance to over extend Jones and the fact that the Cubs just faced him, I believe 6 IP is a tall order.

Jose Quintana's numbers do not look good and his underlying metrics paint a very worrisome picture. On the surface, Quintana has failed to throw 5 Ks in a single start this season. However if we look under the proverbial hood, I would argue hes actually run a bit hit in the stirkeout department. Quintana possesses a dismal 6.9% SwStr% and his 84.1% contact rate are both career worst marks. He will face a Phillies lineup who hes struggled against historically.

I'm looking to fade PJ Washington despite him scoring 20+ points in three consecutive games. While I believe he is a regression candidate as I do not buy that Washingto has suddenly emerged as a 20 PPG scorer, he has a green light offensively and is playing big minutes, while clearly benefiting from the defensive attention Luka and Kyrie command. Meanwhile we're getting a big RA line here as Washington averaged a combined 7.7 RA in the regular season. Washington has been the second leading rebounder in this series vs OKC and I do not believe that is sustainable.

Chet stepped up in Game 4 and provided OKC with a secondary scoring punch that they needed in order to even what has been a very competitive series. Chet logged 40 minutes in Game 4 which were the most minutes he has played in the playoffs. I expect him to receive similar PT/heavy minutes again tonight barring foul trouble. If we look at the rebound distributions in this series, I would offer that Chet is running cold and with the likelihood of him getting a significant bump in playing time, coupled with a RA line that he averages despite playing fewer than 30 MPG, this line looks much closer to his floor.