Matt's Picks (4 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
The Oilers looked excellent in Game 4 but that was at home, a bit of desperation and with Calvin Pickard making his first start of the series in net and first-ever in the playoffs. He played really well and had spectacular numbers all year while in Edmonton. But he's a 32-year-old journeyman for a reason, and his road numbers in the regular season were quite a bit worse. And I guarantee you the Canucks put more than 21 shots on him tonight (and now they have a bit of a book on him). In addition, blueliner Carson Soucy is back from a one-game suspension. Truly don't care who wins overall, simply would like to see seven games in this really fun series.
Wow, we get -115 on this with Amaya hitting .188 on the season and .143 this month? That's almost in the Martin Maldonado zone (what is it with Chicago catchers?), although Marty definitely stands alone "living in the world of suck," as former Denver Broncos receiver Emmanuel Sanders once memorably said. I think Amaya will be in there because Yan Gomes started last night in Atlanta.
Bucs righty Jared Jones is going to be excellent in his career, but he's still a rookie making only his ninth career start -- and the Cubs just beat him last Friday in Pittsburgh. This is too cheap on Chicago and Justin Steele at home to ignore (should be at least -150 in my opinion) as the Cubs are the superior team overall ... but it may get rained out.
This is simply me thinking the Sox should not be getting +1.5 -- and at some books they aren't. Tampa Bay's bullpen could be really short-handed as the team's main guys have all been used the first two games of the series. Cooper Criswell is only about a five-inning guy for Boston but has a 2.10 ERA. Because the Sox didn't lead after the sixth inning last night, their bullpen is in much better shape.
I'm super-late to the Phillies party because I frankly think they are somewhat overrated but hard to argue with the results, and I've been missing out. Totally jinxed now. Still was on the fence here but Mets leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo was scratched, so why not at this price. Former Met Taijuan Walker has gotten better in each of his three starts this year for the Phillies.
Man the Guardians are so much better than I thought they would be. But this is also the end of seven-game trip so a natural letdown spot ahead of a flight home. Carlos Carrasco has a 6.20 road ERA. Closer Emmanuel Clase likely is not available. Pretty big sense of urgency in Bruce Bochy's clubhouse, at least for mid-May, considering the World Series champs have lost five straight and could fall under .500 for the first time this season. That's definitely some motivation. Since the start of April, Jon Gray has an AL-best 1.50 ERA.
All I want is overtime. The Avalanche will be obviously desperate down 3-1. I'm assuming one of their key guys will not be suspended for six months as the puck is about to drop tonight as happened in Game 4 to Valeri Nichushkin. Hadn't heard of that before. But blueliner Devon Toews is back after missing that injured. Never would have played Colorado ML in Game 4 had I known those two were out. The big reason I'm gonna try this, though, is Dallas will be without Roope Hintz (30G, 35A in RS). Hintz has two goals and six points in nine playoff contests. I deserve this after the Rangers' third-period fiasco the other night.
Was not on my radar at all but Ronald Acuna is getting his first day off this season -- granted, not close to what he was last year but it's significant -- and still no Austin Riley for the Braves. Javier Assad has been incredibly good for the Cubs. Like too good so it can't continue, but we only need a one-run loss.
The Marlins' bullpen might be in tatters after the team played a third straight one-run game Tuesday. Starter Trevor Rogers (0-6, 6.57) has allowed 12 earned runs in just 5.2 innings over his last two outings. Detroit's Casey Mize, the former No. 1 overall pick, can be a bit untrustworthy on the road but has a 2.65 ERA at home in three starts.
Getting the O's only -125 at home means I have to play something even though Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has been very good this season. A lot of Orioles hitters have good career splits off him. This may well get rained out like last night's did when Chris Bassitt was to pitch for the Jays and we liked that much better. The O's have been very good at home vs. lefties like Kikuchi, though.
Was planning on taking today off picks-wise after every bad break possible mushroomed on me last night in a disaster. Of six picks I made, at one point thought I was gonna win five and in the span of about 45 minutes it all went bad. Who gets suspended a few hours before a freaking NHL playoff game (Avalanche) when at the morning skate? Ah well. But then I saw the DraftKings props trends for tonight -- which you can find in the daily premium newsletter I write if you have signed up -- and this popped out so will throw something down as Gordon shoots 3s much better at home as it is and has made multiple 3s in three straight games.