Alex's Picks (3 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Tyrese Maxey is coming off of his best playoff game of his career having scored 46 points on 17-30 shooting after playing a whopping 52 minutes. This is a big number for Maxey in a game with a 199.5 point total. This game projects to be paced down and a low scoring environment with minimal possessions. I also expect Joel Embiid to score a lot more than 19 points.
Credit to Bobby Portis who had a big 29 point, 10 rebound performance in Game 5 of this series. Portis shot 14-24 from the field and his previous series high was 17 points. This series is moving back to Indianapolis where Portis has struggled. There is also a small/outside chance that both Giannis and Damian Lillard could suit up as well.
This is simply a huge number for Edward Cabrera who has only eclipsed this once in three starts this season, however he has been held under in 39 of his 44 career starts. He will face a Rockies lineup that does strike out a ton, however they've been fairly solid against opposing right handed pitching as they sport the 15th highest OPS. This number had no business opening at 17.5.
Ivica Zubac is having an exceptional series where he is averaging a healthy 16/10 on 57% shooting from field. Zubac had a career best season and he has been a difference maker in this series. With that being said, this number is simply massive for the Croatian Center and I anticipate a better performance defensively from Daniel Gafford who has really been underwhelming in this series, despite an incredible 20 game stretch to close out the regular season. Zubac has the best plus/minus of any member of the Clippers so it will be imperative for Dallas to try to keep him at bay and/or off the floor.
Justin Verlanders strike out metrics have been on the decline for a while and last season was the first time he had a sub 10% SwStr% since the 2014 season. He will face a Guardians lineup that has the 4th lowest K rate against opposing right handed pitchers and has been the stingiest lineup in baseball from a strikeout standpoint for three consecutive seasons.
Triston McKenzie has the unenviable task of facing the Houston Astros who possess the lowest K rate in the league this season. McKenzie's underlying metrics haven't been great either and 5 Ks is a tall order for him against a lineup like Houstons.
This is a huge number for Bam who has only eclipsed this line in 1/4 games of this series, despite playing nearly 40 MPG in the playoffs. Adeabyo has played well but the Heat are simply overmatched and without Jimmy Butler there is just a massive disparity in talent between these teams and it is simply too much for Miami to overcome. Boston stewed over their first round loss to Miami last season and I believe will be highly motivated to take care of business and complete the gentleman's sweep of the Heat.
Patrick Sandoval has struggled to start the season although his strikeout numbers are in mostly in line with his career averages. However he is facing a Phillies lineup that has been as potent as any over their last 10 games. In addition to racking up a ton of runs, the Phillies are barely striking out and I believe there is a good chance they are able to end Sandoval's night prematurely.
The Phillies bats have been red hot and have scored five or more runs in six consecutive games. They will face lefty Patrick Sandoval who has really struggled to start the season posting a 6.33 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. Sandoval has failed to record 6 IP in one of his six starts this season and 25/34 starts dating back to last season.
Kenta Maeda has struggled this season and while his strikeout metrics don't look great, I don't believe hes suddenly fallen off a cliff. Maeada has been a very consistent strikeout artist over the last seven seasons and he has a "get right" matchup against a Cardinals lineup that sports the seventh highest K rate against opposing right handed pitchers this season. Look for Maeda to get back on track in a favorable matchup.
Tyler Anderson has gotten off to a very good start for the Angels but I believe he is a major regression candidate and his current numbers simply aren't sustainable long term. The lefty will face a Phillies lineup that possesses the eighth highest OPS against southpaws, in addition to having excellent career numbers against Anderson. The Phillies bats have also been on fire lately and I like their chances of getting to Anderson in this matchup.
This is a big number for Bobby Portis even without Damian Lillard and Giannis in then lineup. Portis is a very productive player that typically comes off the bench when the Bucks are at full strength. He is much bigger offensive responsibilities with Milwaukee missing their two stars and leading scorers. While Portis usage should obviously increase he tends to struggle when hes a primary or secondary scoring option which is why I like fading him tonight.