Inter Miami vs NYCFC MLS soccer odds, props: Lionel Messi game-time decision Saturday, but sportsbooks expecting superstar to play

If Inter Miami has any shot of reaching the MLS playoffs, it may need to win out. The 2023 season is in its stretch run, and Miami sits 14th in the Eastern Conference with only the top nine reaching the postseason. Thus, the sportsbooks expect Inter Miami superstar Lionel Messi to play Saturday night at home against New York City FC, even though he's a game-time decision, because of the importance of the game. At DraftKings, Messi is a -135 favorite to be an anytime goalscorer.

The Argentine missed Wednesday's U.S. Open Cup final with a nagging leg injury and Miami was beaten 2-1 by Houston as it looked to hoist a second trophy this year with Messi – it won the Leagues Cup last month. Without him, Miami was outshot 19-12 by Houston. Josef Martinez had the lone goal.

Messi's club has 32 points in MLS, five out of the last playoff spot in the East (No. 9), which so happens to be currently held by NYCFC (37 points). A win Saturday could jump Miami all the way to 11th, potentially within two points of a playoff spot if it gets help elsewhere.

It's also the first of three MLS games in eight days for the Miami. There are only five total MLS games left for the Herons, who do have two games in hand on New York. NYCFC is playing some of its best soccer of the season, currently on a five-game unbeaten streak (two draws) and having allowed just one goal in that stretch.

Only the top seven teams in each conference made the playoffs last year -- MLS expanded the postseason for 2023 and beyond -- but the two ninth-place teams finished with 43 and 42 points. If we use 43 points as the minimum needed to reach the playoffs, then Inter Miami needs 11 points in its final five matches. Each MLS win is worth three points and a draw is one point.

DraftKings doesn't offer odds on making the playoffs, but Inter Miami is the +750 third favorite to hoist the MLS Cup for the first time. That's purely the Messi Effect, and Miami taking monstrous action to win -- by far the most of any team -- despite the possibility of the Herons not even qualifying.

While the books expect Messi to play Saturday, veteran left back Jordi Alba, Messi's former teammate at Barcelona, will miss a second straight game with a hamstring injury. Inter Miami is unbeaten in its last five regular-season home fixtures and is +100 to win Saturday with NYCFC at +230 and a draw +270.

New York goes for the season sweep as it beat visiting Miami 1-0 on March 11 thanks to an own goal from Inter's Christopher McVey in the 36th minute, off a deflection from Santiago Rodriguez's free kick.

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