The Eagles haven't been as dominated as last season. Philadelphia's secondary has been a liability, allowing 374 total yards to their opponents over their last three games. The Chiefs also have the better coach and a +13.8-point differential at home.

Andy Reid is great off a bye. Because he self scouts. Rice is their best option at WR. The only time he has been under this number lately was in a strange game when Mahomes had less than 200 yards passing the week after he had the flu. Let’s go over

I really like this spot for DeVonta Smith, despite the Chiefs' strong play on the defensive side of the ball. A.J. Brown is going to draw a lot of attention, and D'Andre Swift has given Philadelphia a legitimate Pro Bowl caliber running back, which should soften things up for Smith. With Dallas Goedert out, I also expect an uptick in targets for Smith on MNF.

The Chiefs have gotten off to fast starts this season, then stagnated in the second half. We saw it again in the win over Miami in Germany. Andy Reid's preparation off the bye will be key in getting us to the window.

I like Hurts over this number. His median is 270 and I think they have over adjusted for the Chiefs bad run D. Plus if they get behind, they will throw.

Mahomes median carries is 6 per game. That includes a game with ZERO carries and a game when he had the flu. At plus money I cannot resist. Over.

The Chiefs defense has been very solid this year, but they have yet to face a team that has a legitimate dual threat QB and both a rushing and passing attack. I think the Eagles will do a lot of running which will chew clock, but I also think they'll be efficient enough with that running to put points on the board. There is also the scenario where the Chiefs come out of the gates strong offensively, pushing the Eagles to push the ball downfield.

We know that the Eagles target share is concentrated among three pass catchers, and one of those pass catchers is not playing in this game (Dallas Goedert). We have historical data on what that means for DeVonta Smith and it includes a higher target share. The Eagles will run the ball plenty in this matchup, but when they throw, most of the targets are going to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. An added bonus is that this year the Chiefs have fared better against WR1s than WR2s.

These clubs memorably met in last season's Super Bowl, with the Chiefs memorably rallying from 10 points down to prevail 38-35 in a wild shootout. Although plenty has changed since, the dynamics Monday support going Over this modest total. Each club's defensive weakness supports the opponent's offensive strength. The Chiefs allow 4.6 yards per rush (No. 30 in the NFL), while the Eagles average 129.7 rushing yards per game (No. 8). Conversely, Philadelphia allows 257 passing yards per contest (No. 29), while Kansas City throws for 265 yards per game (No. 4). This matchup should have a downhill tempo, similar to the Super Bowl meeting, and clip the Over.

Arguably the game of the 2023 regular season goes down Monday night with a Super Bowl rematch in Kansas City. Andy Reid is 31-6 SU (21-3 in the regular season) and 23-14 ATS with extra rest, and Patrick Mahomes is stellar covering -2.5 or lower 77% of the time in his career. (Sorry folks, but we also know how Travis Kelce plays with Taylor Swift in attendance, too.) To be fair, Nick Sirianni is 3-0 SU off the bye, but the Chiefs are also at home in primetime. My biggest concern remains their lack of explosive playmakers at the receiver position, but KC’s defense has significantly impressed. If the Chiefs can slow down or stop the run, they win this game and cover.

Despite both of teams going under in most of the majority of their games this season I think we may finally see a primetime shootout. Both of these offenses are explosive and if theyre able to push each other, I think this game has sneaky potential to be high scoring.

Chiefs wideout Justin Watson only caught two of five targets versus Miami, but the targets tied a season high. Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 30 times and Watson ran a route on 25 of those dropbacks. Mahomes trusts Watson, and he's a big target at 6-2, 215 pounds. Look for Watson to make at least two grabs Monday night.

Illustrative, perhaps, that in KC's games vs. high-powered foes like the Lions, Jags, and Dolphins, the Chiefs landed under each time. That's a recurring them for this year's edition, now 6-2-1 under as the offense has been forced to be a bit more patient while Steve Spagnuolo's defense does much heavy lifting. Philly is under 3-1 its last four away, and do not expect this one to resemble the pinball game at the Super Bowl last February. Play Eagles-Chiefs Under

We’ve got the third-best scoring team (28.0) with the Eagles visiting the second-best scoring defense (15.9) with the Chiefs. The Chiefs usually win this battle with the total staying under in seven of nine games. The Chiefs have won and covered the last four meetings, including 38-35 in las season’s Super Bowl. It’s going to be rainy and overcast with 15 mph winds at a cool 43 degrees. This low total tells the story of the Chiefs transition into being who they are now, not the Chiefs of the past. Under is the best bet here.

The last time these two teams faced off, in February's Super Bowl, Hurts rushed for three scores in the Eagles' close loss. He has scored at least one rushing score in 18 of his last 27 games dating back to last season. I prefer this prop closer to even money but with it hitting at a 2/3 success rate, I'm willing to lay the -120 for Hurts to run one in tonight.

The Eagles defense only allows 66.3 rushing yards per game and they're going to try and put Kansas City's offense in pass mode only. It could work, also could be a bad decision, however what it will likely do is force the Chiefs to use Mahomes on the ground as well...anything to light a spark and stay balanced. Not to mention Philly's defensive front is doing work lighting up stat sheets with sacks, which is another reason why I love this prop, Patrick Mahomes will get flushed out of the pocket and forced to take off. Great chess match tonight.

The Super Bowl rematch is going to be legit and will feature two of the best QB's in the league...however both might find themselves having to get the run game going on their own. Kansas City boasts an interesting defensive front, they can usually stop *one* aspect but not both. Philadelphia can hurt you either way. Long story short, look for Jalen Hurts to be the disruption for KC, air to ground back to air and back to ground. He'll force them all over the field, not to mention attempts on 3rd and 4th down with the "tush push." We have many ways to get this done.

Eagles safety Reed Blankenship has cleared this prop number in all but one game, and that was the 20-14 Jets loss in which he left in the third quarter. He took a brutal blindside block from Allen Lazard, injuring his ribs, and had to sit out the following game too. He's been back for two games, registering 16 tackles. Despite missing two full games and part of another, Blankenship has played the fourth-most defensive snaps (448) on the Eagles. He doesn't leave the field. Look for Blankenship to notch at least seven combined tackles Monday.

The Chiefs rank 31st in rush efficiency defense, compared to third against the pass. So we can expect a run-heavy attack from a Philly team that ranks fifth in rushing play percentage (47.0). Among the Eagles' running backs, Swift is dominating carries. He's 7-1 Over this number since Week 2. It doesn't hurt that the Eagles have activated starting right guard Cam Jurgens, an outstanding run blocker, from IR.

Andy Reid is 30-6 off a bye and has had extra time to prepare for an Eagles defense he hung 38 on to end last season, and one that is not nearly as stout and balanced as it was a year ago. Eagles issues against the pass will show up here just enough in a close game. Mahomes will frustrate them with his legs and I am making this pick primarily because KC's defense is more sound than Philly's. Throw in home field advantage. I am buying Reid and Mahomes tweaking some things and ramping up the passing and redzone efficiency to win by a field goal here.

Andy Reid/off the bye. Sing that mess on repeat and don't overthink this game. The Eagles are a great football team and do a lot of stuff that will make life difficult for Kansas City but if you're giving me Andy Reid/off the bye at less than a field goal I'm taking it every single time. Especially when he's playing his old team and even more especially when Patrick Mahomes knows they could very well see them in the Super Bowl again and doesn't want to give them any hint at being able to emerge victorious.

It's been two years almost to the day since Kansas City laid less than a field goal at home in the regular season. Bonus angle: The Chiefs are coming off a bye, a scenario in which coach Andy Reid is 21-3 straight-up and 15-9 ATS. While the offense with Patrick Mahomes vacuums up most of the praise, it's the K.C. defense that best explains its title contention. It has permitted 15.9 ppg, tied for fewest in the NFL. Philly's has yielded 21.7 ppg. Given the gap, spotting such a small number seems like a bargain.

This Super Bowl rematch sets up as the best team in each conference facing each other, but the Eagles haven't quite lived up to their 8-1 record. While the Chiefs are top five in yards per play on offense and defense, the Eagles rank 11th and 19th, respectively. The Chiefs offense is also first in sack rate, which helps neutralize the Eagles' defensive strength and puts more pressure on a secondary that's struggled of late. The Chiefs defense is second in sack rate as well, while the Eagles offense is 18th, and keeping Philly in third-and-long instead of third-and-short is crucial to success. This line seems right, but I'm more confident in KC's elite status than I am Philadelphia's.

If you believe this game is fairly close throughout, that has equated to Mahomes going over this number. The passing game has bogged down and Pacheco has been mundane and when a play needs to be made the QB can do it himself. In close games deep into the 4th quarter, Mahomes has gone over this in five of six games (and had 4 runs vs Chargers when KC went up 14 early in the 4th). I think we get some kneel down action as well to help push us over if need be. He's top 8 in QB rushes and his 6.1 yards/carry clearly isn't lost on him or Andy Reid. Love this return over the yardage prop, with Mahomes off bye.

We cashed a bunch of tickets on Hurts-related rushing props in the SB and while the Eagles have backed off that some, he still has topped this number in 7 of 9 games this season. I anticipate at least 3-4 short yardage rushes and as many designed runs with a scramble thrown in. We might not get the benefit of late-game kneel downs, and I'm not sure the Eagles win this game, but I anticipate a renewed focus on some option looks and QB-designed stuff that befuddled this defense for much of the Super Bowl on a day when no Eagles RB could do anything on the ground. With Swift struggling, time to lean on Hurts

With the Eagles run game running dry lately and Swift bottled up, and facing an elite Chiefs D, you don't get cute. You keep the main thing the main thing and that's Hurts in goal-to-go situations. Dude had 3 rushing TDs vs KC in the Super Bowl, lest we forget, and continues to cash this almost weekly (TD in 7 of his last 8 games). No reason not to go heavy, and I also expect to see more designed runs for him in general inside the redzone this week off a bye and with him rested up. It gave the Chiefs fits last time they met with everything on the line.

A Super Bowl rematch is on tap for Monday, and it comes with both teams again enjoying a week off prior to their game. That's big for the Eagles, with Hurts managing a knee injury over the last several weeks. The time off should allow him to attack with more frequency as a runner, where the Chiefs defense is 27th in yards per rush versus third in yards per pass. Even with Hurts' injury, he's only finished with fewer than nine carries twice all year (and in one game had eight). I like the reduced odds on this prop versus his yardage prop, so we'll focus on his attempts.