If Rudy Gobert stays out of foul trouble, he should clear this number. He did it in eight of his last nine games and in both meetings with Denver this season. Gobert anchors Minnesota's NBA-best defense; expect him to play 35-plus minutes and make a big impact against a Nuggets team that gave up a ton of points in the paint to the Lakers.

A noticeable trait in the regular season were the difficulties the Denver Nuggets had with the size of the Minnesota Timberwolves. That may be on display in game one, and give an opportunity for Kentavious Caldwell Pope to benefit off the Timberwolves aggressive defense. Additionally, each of Caldwell Pope’s last four Western Conference postseason series he has started game one off with double digit points. Take his over combination prop.

If you study the four games these teams played in the regular season, the Wolves defensive tenacity really limited the impact of the Nuggets wings and outside shooters. ANT and Conley and McDaniels dig in deep and deny a lot of that. The one Wild Card in all of this, of course, is The Joker. He shot nearly 60% from the field (KAT only played 2 of the 4 games worth noting) averaged over 33/G in splitting with MIN and I just don't think Murray and Porter and Gordon will go off. The MVP has to score like an MVP every game and get the Wolves bigs in foul trouble. He can't be passive or pass-happy (and he wasn't vs them in regular season).

Conley was a do-whatever-you-need stud in the first-round dismantling of the Suns and he was a handful for the Nuggets in four games against them this season. He averaged 18 PPG, shooting 62.5% from the field and over 60% from three. He was 2nd on Wolves in +/- vs DEN (among all who played all 4 games) and also led them with 5 asst/G vs Nuggets and also grabbed 4 boards/G against them. Easy to forget about him with the Wolves young guns but I like him to be very impactful tonight

This is the lowest Nuggets total since they last faced MIN on 3/29 (210), and that game produced 209. DEN was an under team vs LAL (4-1 U) and down the stretch at home but I expect this game to open up a little bit and project both teams to score 105+. Their last meeting produced 223 (at DEN). MIN is young and adept to handle the altitude with so much time to prepare. MIN an elite D team but this is unchartered territory. MIN 9-3 Over last 12 and routinely scored 120+ vs Suns. MIN 25-18 to the over on Road (though, again, DEN went to under at home). The aging LAL averaged 106.4/G in first round vs DEN w/o much from their bench.

This is where the Timberwolves can attack the Nuggets. The Nuggets proved really vulnerable in the paint against the Lakers, allowing 60%+ two-point percentage on any given night. AD statistically worked them both on the boards and offensively. While i'm not expecting and average of 48 points and rebounds from Rudy Gobert, I do think we can hit 14 points. Gobert eclipsed this in Denver in March, and just fell short in April because he fouled out. I can't imagine fouling out will be an option in a game that holds so much importance for this Timberwolves team that needs an early win. Gobert comes into this game 7-2 to the over, and the SL model makes the number 15.

Some angles to consider here, including Denver winning all five of its playoff round openers since last season, most recently vs the Lakers (114-103 in the first round). The T-wolves, however, have played the champs tough this season, splitting the four previous games, are off a resounding sweep of Phoenix in the opening round, and have a score to settle from last season's opening round when losing in five. Both teams routinely scoring enough (T-wolves 118 ppg in the Suns sweep; Nuggets 116 pg last ten) to get this above 207.5. Play Timberwolves-Nuggets "Over"

Karl Anthony Towns has returned to Minnesota's lineup and after a couple of quiet games appears to have gotten his legs back. This is a criminally low number for a scorer the caliber for KAT in a playoff setting where he could play upwards of 40 minutes. He logged 39 minutes in the 4th and deciding game against the Suns which was certainly a welcome sign on his way to scoring 28 points. He is facing a much better defense in Denver, however this line should be at least 20.5 if he is going to log 35+ minutes again.