The Rays just used a bunch of the bullpen last night in a 12 inning game and Taj Bradley looked solid vs the Yankees in his first start off injury. He went six full innings on 93 pitches in that outing and he should be without much limitations (if any) here. Of course this is in Fenway, away from the friendly confines of his home ballpark in Tampa, but I still like taking a shot at this price.

Also played Bryan Reynolds over 1.5 HRRBI (-105) for 1u... After going 5-5 in the first game of this series, Reynolds threw up a dud last night by going 0-3. The best thing to cure a hitless night is a day game nice and early! This will also be against a lefty, which is where Reynolds has thrived for years, and this season has been no different, as he's hitting .321 vs lefties (.217 vs righties). With Reynolds being a switch hitter, I like him turning around to his better side and facing a lefty that has been less than stellar in AAA, despite a solid MLB debut. Also, six of his 17 hits vs lefties have gone for extra bases this year.

Spoke about it on Early Edge, but if you didn't catch the show, I'm going to fade Zach Eflin to get a full six innings here today. Away from the friendly confines of his home ballpark, and now in Fenway, this should not be an easy task. While the Red Sox record does not speak to them having much success this season, they actually have produced as one of the top-10 teams in MLB against right handed pitching of late. With a fairly rested bullpen, the Rays and Kevin Cash should have a bunch of arms at their disposal, and Eflin's pitch count has not been above 94 this year, which doesn't inspire a ton of confidence he has the leash to work deep here.

Looks like all systems are go for Baltimore's lineup tonight so I like getting plus odds here on Jose Berrios to stay under six innings. His last start in Philly heavily skews his home and road splits but we know historically he's been better at home, and this one is in Baltimore. Berrios had trouble with men on base in each inning last time out, finally being pulled after a grand slam by Bryce Harper, which was largely thanks to a walk and two hit by pitches. The O's should regress vs righties at some point, after being league average last year but posting abysmal numbers thus far. Also interesting; in the two starts Berrios has pitched "outdoors" in 2024, he's gone under six innings.

Propstarz tipped me off to the price here and it’s certainly good enough for at least a half unit in my opinion. Gore has actually not been bad this year, despite a shortened last start, and the matchup with Boston could be worse, as they've only been slightly better than average of late vs lefties. Need to enter the 5th inning here and I think Gore has enough strikeout stuff to work out of trouble he may face, plus the Sox have been prone to the punch out vs lefties.

The M's could use some length after Bryan Woo went just 4.1 innings last night and I don't believe the recent numbers for the A's vs righties are telling of future performances. They had a few great games vs inferior arms, but I think Miller is talented and can cut through this lineup with relative ease in Seattle. Joey Estes had two starts in MLB last year, with one against Seattle, and he gave up 9 balls hit over 100mph that day. He hasn't been good in AAA so far, with an ERA over six and his xERA was nearing eight last year in those two MLB starts. Backing the MLB level hitters to tear into him and Miller to shut down the A's bats.

Mason Black got to four strikeouts against the Phillies in his debut, but that came with a ton of pressure as family, friends, and college coaches were all in attendance. The close-to-home debut for Black didn't pan out as he had hoped, but he threw well for the first four innings before it all unraveled in the 5th thanks to a Bryce Harper home run. I'm not really convinced he has the length to go much beyond five innings but I do believe we have some value on this number at +133 for a 5th strikeout against this Reds team in San Fran. Worth a half unit in my opinion!

Spoke about this spot on Early Edge this morning and I think at the +110 that is out there at MGM, there is still value here. Gausman in my opinion projects as one of the better strikeout pitchers in MLB and he turned in a nice eight punch out performance last time out against a tougher to whiff Nats team. Now he faces a Twins team that's running exceptionally hot, and some of their high strikeout rates from last year have been cut in half, making me believe they are due for regression in the K department. Gausman on six days of rest, with this being his 7th day, and the Jays could really use a great start here, plus Phil Cuzzi behind the dish.

Lance Lynn has failed to eclipse this line in 3/4 starts recently but we also saw some good strikeout potential earlier in the year, so it's been a mixed bag for him. Of late, the Brewers have seen their strikeout rate increase vs right handed pitchers but adding Christian Yelich back in to the lineup should certainly help to cut down on strikeouts a bit. Regardless, I think this should be priced closer to -160 or at 5.5 for plus odds to the over.

At nearly +140 here, this is well worth a half unit at least, even if we're on the other side of the 6th inning. Ranger Suarez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far this year, and yet he isn't even the best pitcher on his own team. He had a three start run of pitching into the 7th inning before ending after six his last time out, but against Miami here, this is a lineup he can work efficiently against and get deep into the game. The Marlins haven't produced much vs lefties and they don't walk often either; both should help Ranger here. Also played Suarez to Record the Win (+105 DK).

The Yankees can draw walks and make life miserable for opposing pitchers but they have also allowed 9/12 right handed starters to go over 4.5 Ks this year. Taj Bradley certainly had his own issues last year but he still had a solid swinging strike rate above 11% and he went for at least 4 strikeouts in 19/21 starts. He should be around this number with ease based on his track record, as long he's pitching well, plus he threw 92 pitches in his last start at AAA, so I don't anticipate many restrictions here. Across those two starts at AAA, Bradley racked up 15 strikeouts in 11 innings, and I really believe this number should be at 5.5 minimum.

Just played this at +115 on Draftkings. Keaton Winn was looking like a solid starter for the Giants before his last start in Philly, where he hit a major speed bump, going only 0.2 innings and allowing five earned runs. Winn was sick before that game though, with sinus headaches and body sweats/chills, yet he still tried to power through for his team, but to no avail. The weakness Winn felt made it tough to grip his pitches and the rain delay then pitching in cold/wet weather certainly didn't help. I'll draw a line through that last start and bet on him in a plus matchup against Colorado to bounce back, with both an over on his outs and strikeouts, at some good prices.

After the Giants had to use five relievers behind Jordan Hicks' five inning performance last night, I'm going to bet on Keaton Winn to have a bounce back here. He only lasted 0.2 innings in his last start but he's said to be back to full health now and this matchup against the Rockies doesn't scare me much. At +125 on DK, I see value in playing the over on 15.5 outs here.