Logan Gilbert is having a strong season and has been a viable Cy Young candidate through a quarter of the season. While 6 Ks isn't a particularly daunting number for Gilbert considering he has eclipsed this prop in seven of his eight starts this season, it is a very tough matchup against a Royals lineup that sports the second lowest K rate in the league. An additional component I like is KC has faced Gilbert a lot and not only do they own a solid .821 OPS against him over 59 ABs but have only struck out 15x, good for just a 25% K rate.

This Mariners roster not only leads the league in strikeouts but they also struggle from the plate. That being said, 6 Ks in a big number for Michael Wacha and I don't believe the matchup is quite as bad as it appears at first glance. Wacha tends to really struggle the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, thus if he doesn't record a lot of strikeouts in the first 2-3 IP, he's very unlikely to eclipse this line. Wacha has failed to record 6 Ks in 6/8 games this season. Additionally, the Mariners have solid career numbers featuring minimal Ks against Wacha.

This is a big number for Ronel Blanco who has been held under this line in 5/7 starts this season. If we look at Blanco's underlying metrics he is not generating many whiffs and the data indicates he is running hot on strikeouts. Blanco is facing an A's team that does sport a high K Rate, however they are no longer the cupcake matchup they have been historically considering they are much more proficient at the plate. Oakland possesses a respectable .685 OPS against opposing righties, however if we zoom in a bit closer, the A's lineup have been on a tear over the last few weeks.

Looking to fade TJ McConnell after the Point Guard posted his second double double of the series, which is all the more impressive considering hes only playing 21 MPG. Despite some big performances from McConnell it is very unlikely he has earned additional playing time keeping in mind that both he and Tyrese Haliburton are not nearly as effective without the ball. In addition to McConnell lacking the ability to stretch the court which makes him one dimensional and hard to play at crunch time. I look for the Knicks to slow things down as limit possessions as the series shifts back to New York.

Jose Butto will be facing a red hot Phillies lineup that has been as good as any lineup in the league and ranks in the top 5 in virtually every hitting statistic/metric. They also have been stingy against opposing right handed pitching as they possess the 10th lowest K rate. The Phillies have also faced Butto 3x since 2022 and have excellent numbers against the 26 year old hurler.

Chet Holmgren has had a terrific rookie season and his excellent play has carried over to the playoffs where he is averaging 15/8/3. Holmgren has been a bit quiet so far against Dallas but I like this as a buy low spot for the young Center, considering Holmgren averaged 24.4 PR in the regular season, despite logging significantly fewer MPG than he is in the playoffs. So far Derrick Lively and Daniel Gafford have done a good job on Chet, however I believe we'll see him be more aggressive in Game 4 and I like his chances to have his best game of the series.

PJ Washington has come up clutch and has dropped back to back huge performances which had led to Dallas winning two consecutive games. Washington dropped 29 points in Game 2 and then followed that up with a 27 point performance in Game 3. OKC is a very good defensive club and I have confidence that they adjust, in addition to Washington likely coming back down to earth.

This is a steep price to pay and I typically avoid this much juice, however I am working with a significant edge here. Lorenzen has been a reliable arm for the Rangers and gone 6 IP in four consecutive starts, however his K metrics are not pretty and suggest hes running hot on strikeouts, despite a 19.2% K rate. Lorenzen also gets an extremely tough draw against the Guardians who have excellent career numbers facing him. Shop around as there are significantly better numbers on the market.

Love fading Zach Eflin tonight against the Red Sox at Fenway park. For starters, Eflin has some drastic home vs road splits and has been significantly worse on the road. He will be pitching in Boston in a hitter friendly environment. Eflin has only eclipsed 90 pitches just once this season and will face a Red Sox lineup that is 9th in OPS against opposing righties. Credit to A-Mags for jumping on this spot early.

The Phillies have been absolutely on fire which spells trouble for Sean Manaea. It also bodes poorly for Manaea that the Phillies have excellent career numbers against him. Manaea doesn't typically have a long leash or pitch late into games. I like the Phillies chances of having success off the lefty and almost any pitcher right now would be an underdog to go 6 IP versus the way the Phillies are looking, especially one as volatile as Manaea.