Larry's Picks (4 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
Reid Detmers has been hit hard in his last four starts, allowing 22 earned runs. The Cardinals have been mostly terrible offensively but erupted in Monday's 10-5 win over the Angels. Look for them to keep it going against the struggling Detmers, providing enough run support for ace Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.29 ERA, 31.9 percent strikeout rate).
The Rangers have lost four straight, scoring six runs in the process, and I like the skid to continue Tuesday. Texas starter Jack Leiter is making his home debut after getting torched in two road starts. He sports a 12.91 ERA and 2.35 WHIP. Ben Lively has been rock-solid (2.63 ERA) and is backed by MLB's top bullpen (2.38 ERA).
Due to the Game 4 blowout, Josh Hart only played 24 minutes Sunday. That's critical because he's expected to play around 45 minutes in this pivotal Game 5. Hart had scored 16 or more points in four straight playoff games until the two games in Indiana. With the Pacers focusing a tremendous amount of defensive attention on Jalen Brunson, look for Hart to be a key factor offensively for the desperate Knicks.
Tigers starter Reese Olson has given up five runs over his last five starts, and he should hold down a Marlins lineup that ranks 29th with a .633 OPS. Over the last two weeks, Detroit ranks 12th with a .711 OPS. Miami starter Ryan Weathers has been decent, but has yielded a homer in five straight starts. Back the Tigers to lead after five.
Mariners starter George Kirby dealt with a knee issue earlier this month and has thrown 88 and 70 pitches in two May starts. He struck out three and four batters in those outings. Now he faces a Royals lineup that strikes out at the second-lowest rate and has the fifth-lowest chase percentage. Look for an effective outing from Kirby, but for him to stay Under six strikeouts.
A close game is expected in Dallas on Monday, which should mean at least 40 minutes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has cleared this combo prop in all three games in this series, and an offensive bounceback from OKC could help his assist total.
Braves starter Bryce Elder has only been lit up in one of three starts -- last time out vs. the Dodgers -- but he's given up a ton of hard contact (46.9 percent). Look for the Mets, held to three runs in this series, to bust out offensively against Elder.
Derrick White has arguably been Boston's top player this postseason, though he's coming off a terrible Game 2. I like White to bounce back and be more aggressive attacking the basket, in addition to locating his 3-point touch. With Kristaps Porzingis out, White is taking the third-most shots while averaging 34 minutes played in the playoffs.
San Fran shouldn't be this big of a home underdog to a Reds team that just snapped an eight-game skid. Nick Lodolo has given up an alarming amount of hard contact the past two starts. Rookie Mason Black, facing a scuffling Cincy offense, has a chance to dominate in his first home start.
Sonny Gray fanned 12 Brewers on April 21, and I like him to record at least seven strikeouts Thursday in Milwaukee. The Brewers are striking out at the seventh-highest rate. Gray has gone six-plus innings in four straight starts.
Donovan Mitchell had 12 potential assists in Game 1, but finished with just five assists. Mitchell's Cleveland teammates should shoot better in Game 2 and help Mitchell clear this prop total. Mitchell continues to draw massive defensive attention and is averaging 5.5 assists in the Cavs' four playoff losses.