Stock analysts worried about NASCAR's future

SportsLine.com wire reports
 
   

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- With the death of Dale Earnhardt, analysts worried about the impact of sinking fan support kept close tabs Wednesday on shares of International Speedway Corp. and Speedway Motorsports Inc.

Shares of International Speedway, which owns Daytona International Speedway and several other U.S. auto-racing tracks, fell 31 cents to $41.31 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

On Tuesday, the first trading day following Earnhardt's death and the Presidents' Day holiday, International Speedway shares fell as much as 7.2 percent before closing down 2 percent.

Shares of Speedway Motorsports, which owns Lowe's Motor Speedway near Charlotte and several other tracks, fell $1.29, or 5 percent, on Wednesday to $22.75 on the New York Stock Exchange. The decline came on top of a 5 percent drop Tuesday.

Earnhardt, 49, was killed Sunday when his Chevrolet hit the wall in the final lap of the Daytona 500.

"The market doesn't like uncertainty," analyst Breck Wheeler, who follows both stocks for Legg Mason in Nashville, Tenn., said Wednesday. "His death leaves a void in the sport that we're not clear who will fill."

Dennis McAlpine, of Auerbach, Pollak & Richardson in New York, said his firm is watching the stocks closely, but hasn't officially downgraded them.

"Look, the reality is that the Winston Cup races are sold out for the first part of the year anyway," he said. "That's not going to change. And the TV revenues aren't going to change, either."

McAlpine said the biggest challenge for NASCAR will be finding a way to fill the void left by the seven-time Winston Cup champion.

"If his fans aren't given a venue to replace Earnhardt in the next few months, they do go away," he said. "They might go to another form of racing or to dirt tracks."

The analyst said he didn't fully understand Earnhardt's prominence until he got the chance to go into the pits during a race.

"Everyone would go over and get autographs when the drivers arrived," he said. "Then Earnhardt would show up and there would be a mob scene."

The only comparisons would be the sudden loss of Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods, Wheeler said.

The tragedy prompted Banc of America Securities analyst Gary Cooper to downgrade his stock rating on Speedway Motorsports to "buy" from "strong buy."

"We believe NASCAR will survive as a sport and a business," Cooper said Tuesday. "However, we believe the sport will need time to overcome the loss of its brightest star."

Wheeler did not go as far in her assessment, but she said Earnhardt's death was yet another blow to the stocks, which have suffered from worries over a weakening economy and fears of saturation in popularity for stock car racing.

"After all, this is a discretionary purchase," she said, referring to ticket purchases for NASCAR events and the other race-related spending.

Wheeler said the controversy over safety following Earnhardt's fatal crash is not helping the stock of either company.

"I do think the sport will survive," she said. "But the issue of safety needs to be addressed. And if strong measures are taken, will the racing be as interesting as it was at Daytona?"

Had Earnhardt's tragic death not been part of the picture, Wheeler said she would have come away from the race feeling much better about NASCAR's future.

"Instead, I came away looking at more reasons for near-term concern," she said.

Earnhardt's death was the fourth for NASCAR in the past 12 months, after Adam Petty, Kenny Irwin and truck racer Tony Roper.


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