By John Harris
Special to CBS SportsLine
Aug. 1, 1997
So far this off-season, the teams in the Pacific Division with the most to lose have done the least.
Seattle, which finished with the third-best regular-season TENDEX team rating last year, has done a lot of damage control in hopes of ending speculation that superstar power forward Shawn Kemp will be traded.
Otherwise, the Sonics have done little to upgrade their roster.
OF COURSE, THE SONICS CAN AFFORD to stand pat, what with four starters ranking among the top seven at their respective positions -- Kemp, point guard Gary Payton, small forward Detlef Schrempf and shooting guard Hersey Hawkins. Not even the two-time champion Chicago Bulls can make that claim.
However, Seattle will have a difficult time holding off the Lakers in 1997-98. Two years removed from an appearance in the NBA Finals, the Sonics are slowly giving way to the new power in the Pacific.
If center Shaquille O'Neal plays more than 2,000 minutes next season, and if second-year guard Kobe Bryant continues to emerge as a rising talent, the Lakers will overtake Seattle and rise to the level of Utah in the West.
Like Seattle, the Lakers elected to improve from within.
Other than re-signing free agent small forward Robert Horry, which helps to maintain team chemistry, the Lakers will have the same look again next year.
O'Neal (.859) posted the highest TENDEX rating among centers, but he failed to crack the Top 20 because he didn't play enough minutes. Concern about his health is his only drawback.
Point guard Nick Van Exel remains a potential problem, and he could be replaced by Bryant, who played the position during the playoffs when Van Exel was on the bench.
VAN EXEL IS A STREAKY OUTSIDE GUNNER and sometimes penetrating ball distributor who can be hot and cold. Bryant is seven inches taller than Van Exel, a superior defender and -- two years removed from high school -- he's still learning how to play basketball. Also working in Bryant's favor: Van Exel and Lakers coach Del Harris don't get along.
The Lakers are young and talented enough to overcome the defection of free agent Travis Knight, who signed with Boston. It will probably mean more playing time for center-forward Elden Campbell, who actually plays better when O'Neal is not in the lineup. A true center at the offensive end, Campbell is still learning how to showcase his low-post game without getting in O'Neal's way.
The Lakers were the most impressive Pacific Division team in the playoffs last year. They defeated Portland in four games and were competitive against Utah before their inexperience took over. They will be better team from the experience next year.
Seattle, meanwhile, could be a team on the decline. Kemp and Payton are the Sonics' two best players, but Hawkins and Schrempf perform better in the regular season than during the playoffs. No one else on the roster is capable of making much of a difference. Center Jim McIlvaine, who failed miserably in the Seattle debut, gets another chance to prove he's a legitimate NBA player. His rating was 83 percentage points below the average for centers.
With the exception of Portland, the rest of the Pacific Division is weak. The Blazers joined Seattle and the Lakers as the only teams with TENDEX ratings among the top 10 in the league.
Portland: The Blazers, expecting to lose free agent center Chris Dudley, traded with Dallas for center Kelvin Cato from Iowa State. Cato had the 11th best TENDEX rating in the draft. Free agent small forward Cliff Robinson may leave for a better offer, opening the door for scoring machine Gary Trent.
Phoenix: The Suns re-signed free agent Kevin Johnson, who threatened to retire. Johnson meshed nicely with Jason Kidd, reinforcing his standing as a potential Hall of Fame point guard. Johnson was the best off-season acquisition for Phoenix, which also re-signed free agents Mark Bryant and Rex Chapman.
Sacramento: Mitch Richmond is unhappy with his contract and wants to be traded. Hey, Mitch, Scottie Pippen has been underpaid for years. Get over it. After next year, you'll be a free agent and then you can strike it rich. In the meantime, Richmond should push for Kings management to-resign underrated free agent power forward Brian Grant. The trio of Richmond, Grant and rookie small forward Oliver St. Jean (rated No. 10 overall by TENDEX) could put Sacramento in the playoffs.
Clippers: They made the playoffs last year but got there with a losing record. With David Robinson back in the fold for San Antonio, the Clippers become a lottery team again. Drafting Michigan ower forward Maurice Taylor in the first round (undraftable TENDEX rating) was a mistake, but these are the Clippers, after all.
Golden State: Another team used to doing things backwards, the Warriors encouraged first-round pick Anonal Foyle (No. 8 overall TENDEX rating in draft) to play in summer league before signing a contract. Foyle fractured his foot and won't play until the fall. First-year coach P.J. Carlesimo, who guided the underachieving Blazers in Portland, won't fare as well with less talent in Golden State.
TENDEX ratings of 10 free agents in Pacific Division (plus-minus figures based on league-wide averages)
| Player | Team | Position | Rating | |
| Kevin Johnson | Suns | Guard | .664/+181* |
| Darrick Martin | Clipers | Guard | .509/+26 |
| Bo Outlaw | Clippers | Center/Forward | .560/+18 |
| Travis Knight | Lakers | Center | .548/+5 ** |
| Rex Chapman, | Suns | Guard | .445/+2 *** |
| Brian Grant | Kings | Forward | .529/-12 |
| Robert Horry | Lakers | Forward | .455/-19 **** |
| Cliff Robinson | Blazers | Forward | .415/-59 |
| Chris Dudley | Blazers | Center | .481/-62 |
| Mark Bryant | Suns | Forward | .478/-63 ***** |
John Harris writes for TENDEX. Dave Heeren invented TENDEX in 1960 and is the author of an annual TENDEX draft report. You can email him at davetendex@aol.com.
We welcome your comments in our Feedback Forum
Copyright © 1997 SportsLine USA, Inc. All rights reserved.