The Kentucky Wildcats are an amazing college basketball team. Even without senior guard Derek Anderson, a sure-fire first-round pick in the upcoming NBA draft, Kentucky is favored by TENDEX to win the school's second consecutive national championship.
The Wildcats boast the highest rating among the Final Four teams (104.10). That's why TENDEX picks Kentucky to beat Minnesota (97.30) in Saturday's national semifinals.
North Carolina (95.00) will defeat Arizona (87.90) in the other semifinal, with Kentucky beating North Carolina in Monday's title game.
The ratings are based on a scale of 80.
KENTUCKY'S TOTAL INCLUDES THE NUMBERS produced by Anderson, whose .720 rating in 18 games is 380 points above average for the shooting guard position he's expected to play in the pros.
Players must be at least 100 points above average to be draftable. Players with ratings of +200 and higher have first-round potential Anderson has not played in the tournament because of a knee injury. In his absence, sophomore small forward Ron Mercer has stepped up. Mercer's .547 rating is 157 points above the norm for his position, and 161 points above his .386 rating from last year.
Kentucky remains a powerful team, even without Anderson.
Against Minnesota, the Wildcats will face a well-balanced team led by senior guard Bobby Jackson (.562), whose rating is 222 points above the norm. The Gophers are more solid than spectacular and Saturday's matchup may be determined by how well they handle Kentucky's pressure defense.
If Minnesota penetrates Kentucky's interior defense as it did against UCLA in the Midwest region final, the Gophers could pull off the upset. Otherwise, the Wildcats will advance to face North Carolina.
THE TAR HEELS ARE SUPERIOR to Arizona, plain and simple. Sophomore power forward Antawn Jamison (.570) and sophomore shooting guard Vince Carter (.530) are potential lottery picks this season, if they elect to leave school early.
Arizona has played far above expectations. The other Wildcats in the Final Four don't have a senior in the starting lineup. In fact, they derive their leadership from freshman point guard Mike Bibby (.400).
Junior shooting guard Miles Simon, who has played exceedingly well in the NCAA Tournament, has been Arizona's best player this season. Simon's .459 rating is 119 points above the norm for his position.
Simon needs to perform well in his matchup against Carter, who averages 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.4 steals per game.
According to TENDEX, Carter is North Carolina's best player, not Jamison. Jamison has a higher rating, but he is 120 points above the norm at power forward. Carter is 190 points above average at shooting guard, an exceptional rating for a sophomore.
Monday's championship game will be a matchup of Kentucky's depth and North Carolina's overall talent. Kentucky's team rating is nearly 10 points higher than North Carolina's, indicating the Wildcats have the better overall team and should be favored to win it all.
TENDEX ratings for the 20 Final Four starters. College averages are: Centers .470; Power Forwards .450; Small Forwards .390; Point Guards .350; Second Guards .340. The plus-minus ratings represent the difference between a player's rating and the average for his position.
| 2G | Bobby Jackson, Minnesota | .562 (+222) |
| 2G | Vince Carter, N Carolina | .530 (+190) |
| SF | Ron Mercer, Kentucky | .547 (+157) |
| PF | Antawn Jamison, N Carolina | .570 (+120) |
| 2G | Miles Simon, Arizona | .459 (+119) |
| SF | Sam Jacobson, Minnesota | .500 (+110) |
| PG | Anthony Epps, Kentucky | .444 (+94) |
| PF | Scott Padgett, Kentucky | .539 (+89) |
| PG | Eric Harris, Minnesota | .422 (+72) |
| C | John Thomas, Minnesota | .524 (+54) |
| PG | Mike Bibby, Arizona | .400 (+50) |
| PG | Shammond Williams, N Carolina | .398 (+48) |
| SG | Wayne Turner, Kentucky | .372 (+32) |
| PF | Courtney James, Minnesota | .480 (+30) |
| C | Jamaal Magloire, Kentucky | .499 (+29) |
| C | Serge Zwikker, N Carolina | .475 (+5) |
| SF | Michael Dickerson, Arizona | .365 (-25) |
| PF | Bennett Davison, Arizona | .424 (-26) |
| SF | Ademola Okulaja, N Carolina | .354 (-36) |
| C | A.J. Bramlett, Arizona | .429 (-41) |
John Harris is TENDEX contributor. Dave Heeren invented TENDEX in 1960 and is the author of an annual TENDEX draft report. You can email him at davetendex@aol.com.