The best way to evaluate the blockbuster trade between the Dallas Mavericks and New Jersey Nets last week is to analyze the track record of the deal's architect, new Mavericks general manager Don Nelson. Nelson's history as GM is both good and bad.
Nellie knows talent. Just go down the list and study the TENDEX ratings of the players included in his major deals.
At Golden State, Nelson drafted Tim Hardaway (.638), Mitch Richmond (.633), Chris Gatling (.758), Tyrone Hill (.641), Latrell Sprewell (.598) and Carlos Rogers (.588).
Additionally, Nelson traded for Chris Webber (.675), and that's where his troubles started. When Nelson traded the No. 3 pick in the 1993 draft (Anfernee Hardaway) and three future first-round selections for Webber, he acquired a player with great talent, but not great temperament for his coaching methods.
WEBBER COULD NOT TOLERATE NELSON and his screaming tactics and forced a trade, getting himself sent to Washington for Tom Gugliotta.
The Warriors later fired Nelson because of the controversy.
Even with Nelson gone, Gugliotta never felt comfortable at Golden State, and he was traded to Minnesota for Donyell Marshall. This season, Gugliotta is the second-ranked small forward in the NBA (.669), trailing only Detroit's Grant Hill.
Nelson's problem isn't acquiring talent. It's giving it away.
In his never-ending quest for size, Nelson traded Richmond for Billy Owens (.484), whose TENDEX rating is nearly 200 points less than Richmond's this season. Nelson also traded Tyrone Hill for a first-round pick, and he eagerly dealt Hardaway and three No. 1s for Webber because of his desire for a big man.
Nelson would have taken Shawn Bradley in the 1993 draft instead of Hardaway, but Bradley went to Philadelphia with the second overall pick that season.
As Dallas' new GM, Nelson finally got the chance to acquire Bradley, and he did so with a vengeance. To get Bradley (.598), Nelson gave up Gatling, Sam Cassell (.568), Jim Jackson (.494), George McCloud (.486) and Eric Montross (.375). Along with Bradley, Dallas received Robert Pack (.507), Khalid Reeves (.389) and Ed O'Bannon (.360).
NELSON SAID THE LYNCHPIN OF THE DEAL was Bradley, whose TENDEX ratings for his first three NBA seasons were .442, .569 and .595. This year the average rating for centers is .535, so Bradley is 51 points above average for his position.
However, Bradley's rating has leveled off this year, and he has yet to attain the level reached by Hardaway and Webber -- both of whom are among the top five or six players at their respective positions.
Nelson's weakness as a talent evaluator is his infatuation with size, considering that non-centers like Michael Jordan, Clyde Drexler and Charles Barkley have led teams to the NBA finals. The Detroit Pistons remarkable turnaround can be attributed directly to the outstanding play of small forward Grant Hill.
In dealing for Bradley, Nelson gave away the Mavericks' best player, Gatling, whose rating is No. 4 among small forwards. Only 12 players have ratings of .700 or better this season, and Gatling is one of them. Nelson also gave up Jackson, whose rating placed him among the top 10 shooting guards.
At present, Bradley is not among the top 10 centers. If Bradley continues to develop, he may reach the .700 level in another two or three seasons. If he doesn't continue to progress at that rate, the Mavericks will need to surround him with players whose ratings are among the top 10 at their positions.
ONE OF THOSE PLAYERS COULD BE
Thomas, sidelined for the remainder of the season with a broken ankle, had a disappointing .486 rating this season after posting a .564 rating as a rookie. That rating was comparable to Joe Smith and Antonio McDyess, the top two picks in last year's draft.
Thomas, rated by TENDEX as the sixth-best player in the 1995 draft, is a better player than Mashburn, whose highest NBA rating was .476 two years ago. Mashburn has a .364 rating this season. Did Nelson give away too much for Bradley? His trading history says yes. TENDEX says wait another year before reaching a verdict.
Don Nelson's three most recent trades. What his teams acquired. What he gave away. TENDEX ratings are for the 1996-97 season.
| Dallas | New Jersey |
| Shawn Bradley (.586) | Chris Gatling (.758) |
| Robert Pack (.507) | Sam Cassell (.568) |
| Khalid Reeves (.389) | Jim Jackson (.494) |
| Ed O'Bannon (.360) | George McCloud (.486) |
| Eric Montross (.375) | |
| Dallas | Miami |
| Kurt Thomas (.486) | Jamal Mashburn (.364) |
| Sasha Danilovic (.343) | |
| Martin Muuresepp (N/A) |
| Golden State | Washington |
| Tom Gugliotta (.669) | Chris Webber (.675) |
John Harris is TENDEX contributor. Dave Heeren invented TENDEX in 1960 and is the author of an annual TENDEX draft report. You can email him at davetendex@aol.com.